The ag trade deficit may set yet another record; ag economy may be softening

Low commodity prices are dealing another blow to the ag trade deficit. USDA is now preparing for the third straight year of losses.

The Department expects the ag trade deficit to hit $42.5 billion when the fiscal year starts October 1st, which is a drop of $4 billion from this year, and marks the third straight year of declines since hitting a record low in 2022. Ag imports are expected to increase by around $8 billion.

The economy is tightening its grip on the ag industry. The Chicago Fed says farmland values are slowing in their district, and credit challenges are starting to appear. Fed policy advisers say repayment rates are also starting to slow.

Despite the challenges, they say farm balance sheets have been strong overall, even with less working capital.

Related Stories
ASFMRA’s Howard Halderman gives an update on Corn Belt farmland values, buyer activity, and what to expect for the rest of 2026 as geopolitical tensions and bridge payments move
Tidal Grow’s Align-N system delivers urea nitrogen directly to leaves, improving nutrient efficiency and boosting crop yields for farmers.
Farmers this year will finally be able to update their base acres with the USDA, something that experts warn must be done with complete accuracy.
Fewer interruptions could translate to improved efficiency—and fewer costly delays when timing matters most.
K-State’s Dr. Gregg Ibendahl breaks down the impacts of the Middle East ceasefire on energy markets and input costs, and what farmers should watch in the weeks ahead.
CME Group Executive Director of Ag Research Fred Seamon discusses the recent rise in farmer sentiment highlighted in the March Ag Economy Barometer report.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Kerry Hartwig from Sukup Manufacturing previews the grain management solutions they plan to share with producers at the upcoming Commodity Classic in San Antonio.
Mason McGuire with the San Angelo Stock Show & Rodeo Association recaps this year’s event and looks ahead to the premium sale in April.
FBN co-founder Charles Baron previews the upcoming Farmer2Farmer event and how technology and AI are shaping the industry, offering growers practical insights and farmer-led strategies for modern agriculture.
Farm Bureau Economist Faith Parum discusses the latest Farm Bill proposal and the path ahead for Congress and U.S. agriculture.
The Ranger Road Fire spreads from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Kansas as high winds and red flag conditions persist