Since 1938 the U.S. cattle industry has faced at least eight cycles, rotating from low points in supplies to peaks, and starting all over again.
Historically, cattle cycles typically last ten to eleven years.
With the current cycle about to hit year eleven, many are asking if we’re now due for the cattle herd to rebuild. One expert says that we are not quite there yet.
According to Dr. Josh Maples, “We’re going to have declining supplies in 2024 too, so we are about to hit year eleven of this current cycle. Now, the amazing thing or the interesting thing, whatever you want to say, is all these cycles are about ten years long. You know, we’ve only had two of them that have gone longer than eleven years, and we’re about to hit year eleven. The end of these cycles are characterized by stronger prices, typically. It’s those stronger prices that incentivize producers to hold back efforts to not cull their cows as deep as they have been, which will ultimately lead to more cash being produced the following year and we’re just not there yet. We’re not there yet. I can’t see the end of this cycle yet.”
Today’s U.S. beef herd has reached lows not seen in more than 70 years, totaling just over 87 million head.
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