The size of the U.S. herd was a subject during a rare weekend Congressional hearing. The House Ways and Means Committee was in California, where a former NCBA president set the record straight on consumer prices.
“I’d like just to say real quickly for high retail beef prices, it has nothing to do with tariffs, it’s simply a supply and demand issue. We have the lowest beef herd since 1961 here in the U.S. Consumer demand even at the high retail prices, U.S. consumer demand hasn’t dropped one iota to my happy surprise, and it’s because of the quality of beef here in the U.S., so it’s not related to tariffs or anything else, it’s simple supply and demand and and we just need to grow our beef for a little bit more,” said Kevin Kester, NCBA Past President & California rancher.
The newly reinstated July inventory report offered little hope that it will happen anytime soon. It shows a downward trend all across the board. All cattle and calves are down one percent. Steers are also down, dropping one percent on the year.
The number of cattle was also in the red. Inventory is down two percent on the year. Steers and steer calf numbers gained a percent during the same time. The number of heifers and heifer calves fell five percent from last year with placements down eight percent.
Tight cattle supplies keep prices high for ranchers, but policy shifts, export barriers, and packer losses signal a volatile road ahead for the beef supply chain.
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An import lag for ground beef will likely look different than last year’s egg shortage. The difference comes down to biosecurity and market flexibility.
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