Livestock economists are not expecting much change in next year’s cattle market.
Experts are Rabobank say producers are holding back replacement heifers as they continue fighting drought and high feed prices. Right now, researchers are focused on studying total female cattle slaughter numbers, and they estimate 2022 will end with 17.6 million head of cows and heifers slaughtered. They warn those numbers could have long-lasting implications, including sacrificing gains in next year’s cow herd.
Without better precipitation over the winter and into next spring, researchers say the pattern will likely continue into 2024’s cow herd.
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Cattle and hog supplies continue to tighten while dairy output expands, creating a split outlook in which red-meat prices soften and milk values come under pressure from larger supplies.
Hunter Biram, an extension economist with the University of Arkansas, is tracking Mississippi River water levels as grain shippers shift their focus to transportation following the wrap-up of fall harvest.
Firm live cow prices and shifting dairy-side culling suggest cull cow values may stay stronger than usual this winter despite weaker cow beef cutout trends.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities shares an update on post-WASDE grain movement, with corn leading export momentum, soybeans steady, and wheat and sorghum continuing to move selectively.
Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
