There’s trouble brewing under the surface of ag markets, farm creditors warn

The ag markets are holding steady as lawmakers work to keep the government running. As farmers look ahead to next year, farm creditors say inputs may be cheaper but that relief is hiding a bigger problem.

“We’re seeing large declines in expenses for feed, fertilizer, and fuels, although there are still some increasing costs for things such as interest on debt or on labor costs. Now at an aggregate level, we can look at this and say that liquidity and profitability ratios for the sector have been largely stable. Ratios are improving, but these aggregate stories really are masking sub-sector strain,” said Greg Lyons.

Crop receipts are expected to be down $32 billion from last year. It is one reason multiple ag groups have been pushing lawmakers to get emergency aid to farmers.

Related Stories
Sen. Roger Marshall discusses the Senate’s unanimous passage of the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act and what expanded milk options could mean for students and dairy farmers. Industry groups say it is a win for student nutrition and dairy producers.
Supplemental Disaster Relief Program Stage Two will disburse around $16 billion, approved by Congress last year. Sign-ups begin Monday, and producers have until April to return applications.
An outbreak of Equine Herpesvirus Type 1 (EHV-1) first appeared after livestock events in Texas and Arizona, and some horses have already died.
Early Cattle-on-Feed estimates point to slightly tighter cattle supplies, reinforcing the need to monitor prices and timing for winter marketing.
Row crop losses in 2025 are outpacing last year. With no disaster aid yet approved, many operations face a tough financial bridge to 2026 even as Farm Bill improvements remain a year away.