Cattle On-Feed Estimates Signal Slight Market Softening Ahead

Early Cattle-on-Feed estimates point to slightly tighter cattle supplies, reinforcing the need to monitor prices and timing for winter marketing.

LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — U.S. feedlots are expected to show slightly lighter October and November cattle inventories as analysts anticipate modest declines in placements and marketings heading into winter. The latest pre-report trade estimates suggest on-feed totals remain below year-ago levels, signaling tighter feeder supplies that could influence pricing and marketing strategies through early 2026.

Analysts surveyed ahead of the USDA’s delayed Cattle on Feed report project November 1 on-feed inventories around 97.8% of last year, with October placements near 92.1% and marketings near 92.4%. Estimates for October 1 similarly point to softer activity, including placements at 91.2% and marketings at 95.9%, reflecting disruptions from the recent government shutdown that delayed reporting.

For cattle producers, shrinking placements may tighten fed-cattle supplies later in 2026, while steady marketings indicate continued movement despite cost pressures. Feedlots may face firmer feeder prices if numbers remain below normal levels. Lower cash and future prices may also signal that the market is ready for expansion through heifer retention and herd rebuilding.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Early estimates point to slightly tighter cattle supplies, reinforcing the need to monitor prices and timing for winter marketing.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
President Trump wants to strengthen enforcement of the Packers and Stockyards Act, but R.J. Layher says the Farm Bureau wants USDA to keep three rules in place.
USDA Under Secretary Dudley Hoskins discusses cattle port safeguards, screwworm surveillance, and plans to expand sterile fly production in Texas.
Farmers are gaining trust as concerns about food costs and misinformation grow.
Tight cattle supplies continue to put pressure on beef prices.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Weaker housing demand is putting more pressure on lumber and timber markets.
Ethanol exports reached a five-month high as distillers grains shipments hit an 11-year high.
The funding will support research aimed at developing stronger crop varieties.
Weakening wells could put costly irrigation investments at risk across the southern High Plains.
Apparel orders are shifting among overseas suppliers as importers look to offset tariff costs.
Tighter slaughter supplies are increasing competition for market-ready cattle.
Imports remain the biggest challenge as domestic olive oil demand continues to grow.
Higher butterfat and protein levels can add hundreds of dollars in annual revenue per cow.
Drought and changing cattle supplies could keep pressure on producer margins through the end of the year.
China remained the leading destination for U.S. soybeans as weekly sales declined.
Lower milk and calf prices are providing less support as feed costs move higher.
Agriculture Shows
Agriculture is the most important industry in the world, and Ag PhD Daily brings you the information you need to best manage your business only on RFD-TV and RFD+
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.