NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. agricultural exports to China collapsed in 2025, falling 54 percent from January through August and wiping out $7.4 billion in value, according to Farm Flavor’s analysis of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) trade data.
China remains a top buyer, but renewed geopolitical tensions, shifting procurement strategies, and slowing feed demand triggered the steepest decline in more than a decade.
Soybeans absorbed the largest year-over-year decline, dropping $2.7 billion and accounting for one-third of total export losses. Cotton shipments fell nearly 89 percent, while grain trade fractured across the board: coarse grain exports collapsed 97 percent, corn exports plunged 99 percent, and wheat shipments dropped to zero.
Livestock markets were not spared. Beef exports declined 54 percent, and pork sales fell 20 percent. Only dairy remained relatively stable, slipping just 2 percent.
Nationally, the shift reflects China’s accelerated reliance on South American suppliers, especially Brazil, alongside structural economic shifts that reduced feed imports and reshaped global competition.
Louisiana and Washington Bear Brunt of Trade Losses
The sharp decline in U.S. agricultural exports to China is hitting regional economies unevenly, with the South, Midwest, and West Coast absorbing most of the damage, Farm Flavor reports. From January through August, Louisiana suffered the largest loss — a $1.85 billion decline, mainly due to reduced soybean shipments through Gulf ports.
Washington followed with a $1.36 billion drop, also driven by lower soybean movement, while Texas saw exports fall 80% as coarse grain shipments disappeared entirely. California lost $808 million, including an 89% decline in tree nut exports, and Illinois lost $545 million as soybean volumes contracted sharply.
Southern cotton states — Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi, and Virginia — recorded declines ranging from 62% to 92%, highlighting the depth of market dependency on Chinese mills.
Only a handful of states saw gains, including Michigan, Vermont, New Jersey, and Florida, but these increases were minor and insufficient to offset the widespread national downturn.
