NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Natural disasters are a growing force behind food-price pressure and tighter farm margins — and drought is the biggest culprit, according to a new Trace One study by Federico Fontanella.
Using FEMA and USDA data, researchers estimate average annual U.S. agricultural losses of $3.48 billion, with drought accounting for $1.9 billion — more than half.
On the other hand, Hurricanes contribute about $485 million a year, flooding accounts for $437 million, and cold waves add $286 million. Hail, wind, heat waves, tornadoes, winter weather, and wildfires contribute hundreds of millions more in ag losses.
Drought-Related Ag Losses Uneven Across Regions
California leads with ~$1.3 billion in expected annual farm losses — and the highest per-farm hit (~$20,528) — reflecting the vulnerability of high-value fruits, nuts, and vegetables to water scarcity. Next are Texas (~$205 million), then Iowa, North Carolina, and Florida. At the county level, Santa Barbara, CA tops the list at ~$245 million a year, with Yolo, Napa, Sutter, and Colusa also high. Nationally, the average per-farm loss is $1,851.
Recent shocks show how hazards translate to costs — April 2025 flooding in eastern Arkansas damaged ~$99 million in crops, while Hurricane Helene (2024) prompted $221.2 million in USDA disaster block grants for North Carolina.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prioritize drought resilience — water, insurance, and crop mix — and use local hazard maps to target investments in infrastructure, coverage, and diversification.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Plan for sharp, short-term volatility after unexpected outages; permanent closures rarely trigger major price spread disruptions.
December 12, 2025 12:25 PM
·
Ethanol output softened, but underlying supply-and-demand trends indicate stable longer-term use despite short-term volatility in blending and exports.
December 12, 2025 11:47 AM
·
Strong Farm Credit finances help cushion producers, but prolonged low crop margins could strain renewals in 2026.
December 12, 2025 11:42 AM
·
USDA data confirms that U.S. agriculture remains overwhelmingly family-run despite structural shifts in scale and production, according to a new analystis by Farm Flavor.
December 11, 2025 06:00 PM
·
Stronger sorghum genetics could enhance the resilience of bioenergy crops and broaden production options for growers in harsher climates.
December 11, 2025 03:38 PM
·
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to break down the scope of the U.S. Christmas Tree industry and what growers are up against.
December 11, 2025 01:53 PM
·
Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.
December 11, 2025 01:32 PM
·
Rural employers are slightly more optimistic, but labor shortages and renewed price pressures continue to limit growth across farm country according to a
December 10, 2025 11:56 AM
·
December 10, 2025 11:03 AM
