Tyson Signals Diverging Protein Outlook for 2026 as Global Meat Prices Dip

Tight cattle supplies favor poultry and pork while keeping beef margins under pressure.

19297661-g.jpeg

Tyson Foods

LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) Global meat prices edged lower in January, slipping four-tenths of a percent, according to new data from the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 123.9 points, down slightly from December, though still more than 6 percent higher than a year ago. Falling pork prices led the decline, as strong hog supplies in the European Union and softer global demand weighed on the market.

Poultry prices rose on stronger demand from Brazil, while beef and sheep meat remained largely stable. Overall, global food prices also dipped for a fifth straight month.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight cattle supplies favor poultry and pork while keeping beef margins under pressure.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Tyson Foods reported mixed first-quarter results for fiscal 2026, with strong demand in chicken and prepared foods offset by ongoing pressure in beef. The company said shifting protein supplies and tighter cattle inventories will shape market conditions through the year.

Tyson posted first-quarter sales of $14.3 billion, up just over 5 percent from a year earlier, while adjusted operating income declined as beef losses weighed on overall margins. Management said chicken volumes posted their fifth straight quarter of year-over-year gains, reflecting continued consumer demand and market share expansion.

Looking ahead, Tyson expects beef production to fall by about 2 percent in 2026, leading to an operating loss of $250 million to $500 million for the segment as cattle supplies remain tight. Pork production is projected to increase by about 2 percent, with operating income expected to be between $250 million and $300 million. Chicken remains the strongest performer, with Tyson projecting operating income of $1.65 billion to $1.9 billion on modest production growth.

The company expects higher government data to show that overall U.S. protein output will rise by about a percent in 2026, while Tyson focuses on execution, cost control, and capital discipline.

Related Stories
USDA’s steady yields and heavy global stocks keep grains range-bound unless demand firms or South American weather becomes a real threat.
USMEF’s Jay Theiler discusses his leadership role in representing U.S. beef and pork and provides an update on this week’s conference in Indianapolis.
Manure from a hog farm is more than just waste; it is also becoming a key renewable resource for operations.
USDA released the November WASDE Report on Friday, the first supply-and-demand estimate to drop since September, just before the 43-day government shutdown.
USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom shares how recent trade talks are influencing U.S. red meat global sales and the importance of key trade agreements like the USMCA.
Winter weather will challenge livestock producers working to rebuild their herds despite harsh conditions.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Record ethanol production and improving blending demand continue to support corn usage despite rising short-term inventories.
Tight beef cow supplies and steady demand point to continued record-level cull cow prices in 2026.
A disciplined, breakeven-based marketing plan helps protect margins and reduce risk, even when markets remain unpredictable.
Expanded school access to whole milk provides modest but reliable demand support for U.S. dairy producers.
The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 2026 agenda centers on labor stability, biosecurity, and economic resilience for family farms. Expanded DMC coverage improves risk protection for dairy operations facing tighter margins.
Agronomy experts explain why standing crop residue protects soil and reduces costs for crop growers, while shredding often yields little benefit at higher costs.