U.S. ag trade deficit could surpass $45 billion this year

This year’s ag trade deficit is forecast to ballon past $45 billion. It is a number that puts the trade balance in the red by double digits.

“A trade balance of -$12 billion, which is $8.9 billion less than the -$3 billion during the same time period the previous year,” said Bart Kenner, USDA economist.

Kenner says the main driver of slower exports in the last couple of years has been the strong dollar compared to foreign currencies. U.S. ag exports fell around $4 billion last year. Exports to Asia are expected to fall several billion dollars this year, and that was calculated before tariff discussions.

Related Stories
Lower freight costs helped sustain export demand amid a challenging pricing environment.
OODIA’s Lewie Pugh discusses the EPA’s new Right to Repair guidance and other regulatory developments impacting the trucking and agriculture industries.
Rebuilding domestic textiles depends on automation and vertical integration, not tariffs or legacy manufacturing models.
Low prices are painful now, but production response could support stronger milk markets later in 2026.
At CattleCon 2026 in Nashville, RealAg Radio’s Shaun Haney discusses profitability, consumer demand, and how the integrated U.S.–Canada beef supply chain impacts cattle producers across North America.
The USDA’s February WASDE report looms as the CME Ag Economy Barometer shows declining farmer confidence, and more ag industry groups calling for swift policy action.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Cindy Kovar with AgriSafe joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report to talk about road safety and agriculture as we age.
USMEF CEO Dan Halstrom joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report for his analysis on the U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement, which includes big bucks for U.S. Beef.
Record U.S. sorghum crop faces weak demand as China slashes imports, while corn farmers warn of rising costs, shrinking margins, and global market pressures.
Fewer cattle on feed suggest smaller slaughter numbers this winter, which could support strong prices if beef demand holds firm.
Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.
With the latest detection just across the border, animal health officials on both sides are intensifying efforts to contain the outbreak before it spreads further north.