U.S. Milk Output Rises as Class Prices Drop Sharply

Milk output is rising, but steep drops in Class I–IV prices are tightening margins heading into 2026.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. milk production continues to expand, but dairy producers are facing a very different price environment heading into winter. Recent milk production data (PDF Version) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) show national milk output up 3.6 percent from August through October, driven by modest gains in cow numbers and slightly stronger production per cow. At the same time, federal order class prices have weakened considerably, creating a tighter margin picture for many farms.

October’s Class I Base price fell to $18.04 per hundredweight — more than $5 below last year — while Class III and Class IV prices also declined by similar margins. Those declines mirror weaker dairy product prices across most categories and suggest that additional downside pressure may continue into early 2026. USDA’s latest forecast expects next year’s all-milk price to average $1.80 per hundredweight lower.

Regionally, production gains were broad, with most states posting year-over-year increases. Butterfat and milk solids output also continued to rise, adding to the overall supply.

Looking ahead, USDA projects U.S. milk production will increase another 2.4 percent in 2026 as herd stabilization and efficiency gains continue.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Milk output is rising, but steep drops in Class I–IV prices are tightening margins heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
More than 15 million birds were affected by bird flu, but fewer outbreaks are helping bring egg prices down
Widespread drought and extreme weather leave producers managing limited resources
Shaun Haney, host of RealAg Radio, outlines potential risks for agriculture as negotiations continue between the two countries
Consumer spending continues, but value-focused buying is on the rise.
Farm legal expert Roger McEowen highlights the legal challenges surrounding stray voltage, a recent court decision, and what it means for agricultural producers.
The 2026 Farm Bill advances out of committee, but political divisions delay final passage as lawmakers push to protect farmers, SNAP, and crop insurance programs.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Tight supply and logistics issues may raise input costs.
Farm programs remain small but politically easier to expand.
Export funding aims to strengthen global demand for U.S. commodities.
Dairy markets are improving, but large supplies still cap the upside.
Investment and access to capital remain critical for agriculture.
Strong ethanol exports support long-term growth in corn demand.