NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. milk production continues to expand, but dairy producers are facing a very different price environment heading into winter. Recent milk production data (PDF Version) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) show national milk output up 3.6 percent from August through October, driven by modest gains in cow numbers and slightly stronger production per cow. At the same time, federal order class prices have weakened considerably, creating a tighter margin picture for many farms.
October’s Class I Base price fell to $18.04 per hundredweight — more than $5 below last year — while Class III and Class IV prices also declined by similar margins. Those declines mirror weaker dairy product prices across most categories and suggest that additional downside pressure may continue into early 2026. USDA’s latest forecast expects next year’s all-milk price to average $1.80 per hundredweight lower.
Regionally, production gains were broad, with most states posting year-over-year increases. Butterfat and milk solids output also continued to rise, adding to the overall supply.
Looking ahead, USDA projects U.S. milk production will increase another 2.4 percent in 2026 as herd stabilization and efficiency gains continue.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Milk output is rising, but steep drops in Class I–IV prices are tightening margins heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
FarmHER Chris Nellis and her daughters navigate loss while carrying on a 300-year farm legacy, milking cows in upstate New York.
January 28, 2026 03:27 PM
·
Mixed product pricing and rising milk supplies suggest margin management will remain critical as 2026 unfolds.
January 28, 2026 06:00 AM
·
Marilyn Schlake with the UNL Department of Agricultural Economics joined us for a closer look at the evolving role of livestock sale barns.
January 27, 2026 12:19 PM
·
Meat stocks rose seasonally but remain below last year overall, while tighter butter inventories could support dairy prices, and belly stocks warrant close watch for pork markets.
January 26, 2026 03:00 PM
·
A mid-January winter storm delivered snow, ice, and extreme cold to a broad swath of the U.S., disrupting transportation, stressing livestock systems, and adding cost and complexity to winter farm operations as producers look toward spring.
January 26, 2026 01:10 PM
·
Heavier weights and strong late-year slaughter supported December production, but lower annual totals highlight ongoing supply tightness heading into 2026.
January 26, 2026 11:19 AM
·
