U.S. Milk Output Rises as Class Prices Drop Sharply

Milk output is rising, but steep drops in Class I–IV prices are tightening margins heading into 2026.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. milk production continues to expand, but dairy producers are facing a very different price environment heading into winter. Recent milk production data (PDF Version) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) show national milk output up 3.6 percent from August through October, driven by modest gains in cow numbers and slightly stronger production per cow. At the same time, federal order class prices have weakened considerably, creating a tighter margin picture for many farms.

October’s Class I Base price fell to $18.04 per hundredweight — more than $5 below last year — while Class III and Class IV prices also declined by similar margins. Those declines mirror weaker dairy product prices across most categories and suggest that additional downside pressure may continue into early 2026. USDA’s latest forecast expects next year’s all-milk price to average $1.80 per hundredweight lower.

Regionally, production gains were broad, with most states posting year-over-year increases. Butterfat and milk solids output also continued to rise, adding to the overall supply.

Looking ahead, USDA projects U.S. milk production will increase another 2.4 percent in 2026 as herd stabilization and efficiency gains continue.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Milk output is rising, but steep drops in Class I–IV prices are tightening margins heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Record pace corn exports are helping stabilize prices despite softer global grain production and ongoing supply competition.
Rising production underscores the importance of marketing discipline and margin protection as milk supplies expand.
The report shows that, despite production challenges, dairy farmers are producing more milk with fewer resources per gallon across the industry.
Smaller U.S. production and steady global demand could provide better pricing opportunities in 2026.
Higher yields are cushioning lower acreage, but reduced production could support firmer potato prices into 2026.
Reviewing risk management now can help dairy and livestock producers enter 2026 with clearer margins and fewer surprises.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Nick Westgerdes of the American Society of Farm Managers & Rural Appraisers breaks down farmland values, rental rates, and sales trends in Illinois, while previewing the upcoming land values conference for 2026.
Land equity protects solvency but does not replace profitability.
Reliable canal infrastructure supports long-term access to global agricultural markets.
Corn export pace remains the bright spot, but stable ethanol export demand remains a critical support for corn markets.
Rail consolidation could affect grain basis, freight rates, and service reliability across major producing regions.
For communities that depend on agriculture as their primary economic engine, the recession is not defined by headlines on Wall Street. It is defined by the quiet disappearance of the businesses that once processed, serviced, and supported the crop.