U.S. wheat could get more competitive globally if the Ukraine war ends

Market analysts are closely watching the wheat markets as they have seen a rally in recent days. Some think weather is the main driver, but traders have other ideas.

Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions tells us it all comes down to geopolitical pressure. He believes U.S. wheat could get more competitive globally if the war in Ukraine comes to a close.

“Because Russia has been taking wheat out of the Ukraine And other places and selling it on the world market at a very cheap rate. They’re just undercutting everyone in an effort to finance their war. In theory, if the war ends, there’s no reason to finance that war and no reason to take that wheat and dump it on the world market at cheap prices. Maybe this wheat market can recover off of that news.”

China is another area that traders are closely watching. This month’s WASDE report showed changes on balance sheets that could indicate trouble within the Chinese economy.

Related Stories
Federal assistance has helped, but the most recent row-crop losses remain on producers’ balance sheets.
The USDA’s February WASDE report looms as the CME Ag Economy Barometer shows declining farmer confidence, and more ag industry groups calling for swift policy action.
Dr. Peter Beetham, interim CEO of Cibus, joined us to discuss the status of EU gene-editing deregulation and its potential implications for agriculture.
China-led demand continues to anchor soybean and sorghum exports despite weekly swings.
Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
Corn and soybean exports continue to anchor weekly inspection totals, with China maintaining a visible role, while wheat and sorghum remain more dependent on regional and seasonal demand shifts.
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
While row crops are expected to see softer impacts, analysts say severe weather of this magnitude will not be as kind to cattle producers.
President Donald Trump speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, addressing SNAP spending, tariff threats against Europe, market reactions, and the upcoming USMCA review.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Speaking about his administration’s tariff strategy, Trump acknowledged that producers could face financial strain in the short term but promised stopgap support.
Rising cow numbers and higher yields are boosting milk supplies, which may keep pressure on prices and farm margins into the fall.
As input costs continue to rise, diesel prices have held steady in recent weeks, according to energy analysts at GasBuddy.
The USDA is moving to close the farm trade gap through promotion, missions, and stronger export financing.
Farm legal and taxation expert Roger McEowen explains the IRS’s shift to electronic payments and disbursements, and what it means for upcoming tax filings.
Estate tax relief reduces pressure, but succession planning remains the critical challenge for farm families.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.