USDA Crop Progress Report-- August 16, 2021


On USDA’s Crop Progress & Condition report this week, the national corn condition rating gave back the two points that it gained last week as it sagged back down to 62 percent good to excellent. Along the I-80 Corridor that we always track for corn production, only Ohio saw an improvement last week and that was only one point to the upside. All the other I-80 Corridor states declined this week. Remember how Illinois showed an 11 percent improvement last week alone? Well, this week, they gave back five percentage points. Notably, Iowa went down three points and South Dakota went down six!

The national soybean condition took a nose dive by three percentage points - taking it down to only 57 percent good to excellent. That may make it hard to reach those record yields that analysts have been clamoring for. Here again, Illinois made the biggest readjustment. After going up 11 points last week, Illinois trimmed seven points from its good to excellent rating this week, more or less confirming that last week’s huge improvement was likely an aberration. The entire I-80 Corridor saw a degradation in crop condition with the exception of Ohio which held steady this week. Both of the Dakotas which are being closely watched because they are where most of the “extra” acres are this year saw a five percentage point decline in their condition ratings.

On the other hand, the national cotton condition actually improved by two points - up to 67 percent good to excellent. North Carolina saw the biggest improvement as it gained three percentage points.

The national peanut condition rating only dropped by one percentage point to 73 percent despite the fact that Florida lost 11 points on its own last week. That loss was offset by Oklahoma gaining six points and the biggest producing state of Georgia improving by one point.

Grain sorghum (milo) conditions again saw wide variability from state to state. When averaged out, the national rating dropped by three points to 60 percent good to excellent. The biggest improvement was in Oklahoma which improved by eight points. The biggest declines were in Colorado and Texas with six and five point losses respectively.

Rice conditions saw a one point decline this week on the national average. It was interesting that the largest producing states of Louisiana and Texas posted improvements of two and 12 percent respectively, but the next three largest producing states all saw declines in condition. Rice harvest is getting a good start with 12 percent of the nation’s crop now out of the field which is right in line with the average pace.

Spring wheat harvest moved past the half way point to 58 percent complete compared to its 5-year average of only 36 percent, so the condition rating is basically a moot point this week.

Pasture conditions worsened in Texas and Oklahoma with both going down by five points while Colorado took the biggest hit losing six points.

Topsoil moisture deficit conditions are the worst in Montana, Washington state, and North Dakota even though all of them saw slight improvement in their numbers this week. Montana, Washington, and Oregon own the top three spots for the driest subsoil moisture conditions. Washington state did manage to improve by two points last week.

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