USDA Crop Progress Report-- June 26, 2021

Crop Progress Graphic

National corn condition ratings declined once again due to the ravages of the drought in the Midwest. The good to excellent rating went down another five points this week to end up at 50 percent good to excellent. Many analysts were looking for only a three-point drop. In the I-80 Corridor, Illinois again reported big losses from the previous week - this time dropping 10 points dragging its current rating to an abysmal 26 percent. That means that basically, three quarters of the Illinois corn crop can’t even muster a “good” rating. Indiana also dropped by nine points, and outside “the Corridor,” Minnesota went down by 10 points. Partially offsetting the lower ratings, Ohio actually improved by five points and North Dakota came up by two. (Please note that the active rain pattern that impacted much of the central Corn Belt over the weekend likely won’t be reflected in crop condition ratings until next week because field surveys are usually done on Saturdays or Sundays.)

The national soybean condition ratings were three points lower to 51 percent good to excellent. In the I-80 Corridor, Indiana reported the biggest drop in condition this week with a loss of 10 points. Illinois and Iowa both dropped by eight points. Ohio continued to rebound with a five-point gain from last week. Outside the Corridor, North Dakota posted a nine-point improvement.

Cotton condition ratings nationwide actually improved by two points this week, landing at 49 percent good to excellent. Of the five top producing states, North Carolina posted the largest loss of 11 percentage points. Mississippi was down three points. On the other hand, Georgia reported a three-point improvement, and the top producing state of Texas showed a moderate improvement of two points.

Spring wheat condition nationwide showed a slight one-point decline in the good to excellent condition rating since last week. Montana reported a hefty improvement of nine points this week while Washington state came up by five. North and South Dakota saw their conditions slide by six and five points respectively.

Winter wheat harvest advanced to 24 percent nationwide, but that is still nine points behind the five-year average pace with rain halting harvest in many areas of the Plains last week. In the key producing Plains states, Texas is now 74 percent complete - just one point behind its five-year average pace. Oklahoma made good progress but still has only reached the 55 percent level which puts it 24 points behind schedule. Kansas is now 21 percent done with its harvest - lagging its average by 17 points.

Pasture conditions in the Plains saw a seven-point decline in the Texas good to excellent rating. Oklahoma went down by six points, but South Dakota improved by nine points. Outside the Plains, Colorado showed a strong 19-point improvement while Montana came up by 13 points. On the other hand, Wyoming dropped by 16 points.

In the topsoil moisture deficit report (generally considered to measure the top four inches of soil representing the seed planting and sprouting zone), the real shocker was Missouri which saw its short to very short rating increase by 20 points from last week. That means its moisture deficit rating has rocketed up to 88 percent - only one point behind Illinois who now occupies the top spot with an 89 percent deficit. Indiana also showed a 10 percent decline in its moisture availability. Michigan reported a four-point improvement plus they also received very beneficial rainfall over the weekend, so their deficit numbers should improve next week.

In the subsoil moisture deficit report (considered to measure deep soil moisture down to a few feet where the crop roots would extend downward), Michigan still leads with 87 percent of its acres falling into the short to very short categories. Illinois is close behind with 86 percent and Missouri saw its moisture availability slip by another eight points, so it now stands at 81 percent short to very short.

USDA Crop Progress 230626.pdf
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