USDA drops 2025 milk production forecast to 226.9 billion pounds in February report

A slight drop in dairy production has led to varied prices for the month of February.

USDA reduced production by 400 million pounds based on recent Milk Production and Cattle Investory Reports. They showed a tighter supply of dairy heifers than expected.

The World Ag Outlook Board Chair said that the month-over-month changes on prices are notable.

According to Mark Jekanowski, “In terms of product prices, kind of mixed there. So, cheese prices we raised $0.02 per pound, reflecting pretty tight inventories, but the other main products— butter, non-fat dry milk, dry whey. We lowered butter, we reduced $0.05 per pound. Non-fat dry is down $0.04 and dry whey forecast we reduced $0.03 per pound...”

Meanwhile, all milk prices fell compared to the month prior.

“Class prices— Class 3 and Class 4 were each forecast lower this month. All milk price lowered this month by $0.45 per hundredweight to $22.60 per hundredweight. Nearly, equivalent to last year, down just $0.01 per hundredweight lower than last year,” he adds.

Jekanowski attributes some of this month’s price changes to the new Federal Milk Marketing Order. That is especially true for class prices, because of changes to how they are calculated.

Related Stories
The DOJ’s new antitrust probe could reshape beef-packer behavior, with potential impacts on fed-cattle prices, processor margins, and long-term competition across the supply chain.
The Senate has cleared a path to reopen USDA, but full restoration of services depends on House approval and the President’s signature.
Mike Newland with the Propane Education & Research Council shares how producers can prepare for winter weather and the benefits of propane.
Verified U.S. data show real leather’s carbon footprint is lower than advertised — an edge for the American cattle industry in both marketing and byproduct value.
Tight cattle supplies keep prices high for ranchers, but policy shifts, export barriers, and packer losses signal a volatile road ahead for the beef supply chain.
Recognizing phosphorus and potash as critical minerals underscores their importance in crop production and food security, providing producers with an added layer of risk protection.