USDA Forecasts Record U.S. Corn Crop, Higher Ending Stocks in January WASDE Report

Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report (Web, PDF Version) projects significantly larger supplies for several key crops in the 2025-26 marketing year, driven by strong production estimates and slower demand growth.

The USDA raised its forecast for U.S. corn production to 17.0 billion bushels, a record total supported by higher yields and increased harvested acreage. With total use rising less than supply, ending stocks climbed to 2.227 billion bushels, above most market expectations.

Soybean output was also adjusted upward slightly, lifting U.S. ending stocks to about 350 million bushels as exports were trimmed.

Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.

For wheat, modest increases in supply and reduced domestic use pushed ending stocks higher as well.

The report’s outlook for rice showed lower U.S. supplies and reduced ending stocks, while global estimates pointed to larger total world inventories of several grains and oilseeds.

Related Stories
“Those could’ve easily been our beans going over there. It goes to show that if that opportunity is there, China would be willing to buy.”
A booming butterfat market is good for some dairy products but threatens efficiency and margins for cheesemakers unless protein levels catch up
Land values are increasing faster than farm income, making it more challenging for young and beginning farmers to expand, but supporting equity for current landowners.
Smaller flocks and lower lay rates are pressuring table egg supplies, even as hatchery activity edges higher.
Strong corn exports are anchoring U.S. trade, while soybean sales remain steady, but shipments lag.
Smaller slaughter numbers across beef and pork signal tighter supplies into late 2025, while record-low veal production highlights ongoing structural changes in the sector.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is urging Congress and the Trump Administration to act quickly on behalf of American agriculture.
Better yield measurement means fairer grids, more precise breeding targets, and more dollars for truly efficient cattle.
The news immediately caused a drop in equities and commodities, with soybeans down 20 percent in a matter of minutes.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.