USDA Forecasts Record U.S. Corn Crop, Higher Ending Stocks in January WASDE Report

Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report (Web, PDF Version) projects significantly larger supplies for several key crops in the 2025-26 marketing year, driven by strong production estimates and slower demand growth.

The USDA raised its forecast for U.S. corn production to 17.0 billion bushels, a record total supported by higher yields and increased harvested acreage. With total use rising less than supply, ending stocks climbed to 2.227 billion bushels, above most market expectations.

Soybean output was also adjusted upward slightly, lifting U.S. ending stocks to about 350 million bushels as exports were trimmed.

Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.

For wheat, modest increases in supply and reduced domestic use pushed ending stocks higher as well.

The report’s outlook for rice showed lower U.S. supplies and reduced ending stocks, while global estimates pointed to larger total world inventories of several grains and oilseeds.

Related Stories
Charly Cummings with Superior Livestock Auctions provides a real-time look at cattle market activity, demand trends, and what lies ahead for upcoming livestock auctions in Texas.
Researchers with the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture are studying the clouded plant bug, which causes millions of dollars in damage to crops such as corn, soybeans, and cotton growing across the state.
Farm Bureau Economist Dr. Faith Parum warns farmers to brace for more losses as the war in Iran sends shockwaves through the ag economy and raises input costs even further.
Margin pressure and competitiveness concerns are shaping cautious outlooks.
More than 15 million birds were affected by bird flu, but fewer outbreaks are helping bring egg prices down
Widespread drought and extreme weather leave producers managing limited resources

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The USDA’s upcoming reports will drop on Tuesday afternoon, giving the trade real results on acreage shifts, drought concerns, and ongoing trade tensions, adding uncertainty for U.S. farmers.
Firefighters are making good progress on two major wildfires burning across parts of Nebraska.
At the White House’s “Celebration of Agriculture,” the Trump Administration announced a slate of policies to support farmers and ranchers, including biofuel mandates, SBA loan programs, and new labeling policies to boost domestic markets for ag products.
Corn Refiners Association VP Kristy Goodfellow offered insight into the Feeding the Economy Report’s key findings, showing the breadth of agriculture’s economic impact and the challenges ahead.
RealAg Radio’s Shaun Haney discusses Canada’s new soil health strategy, its implications for producers, and its potential to support sustainable agriculture in Canada compared to USDA funding for conservation.
National Association of Wheat Growers President Jamie Kress discusses how rising fertilizer prices pressure wheat producers and the Administration’s consideration of lowering duties on Moroccan phosphate.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.