USDA Projects Ample 2025 Supplies Across Major Crops

Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.

Corn-Soybeans_AlfRibeiro-AdobeStock_335629402_1920x1080.jpg

AlfRibeiro – stock.adobe.com

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The USDA’s November WASDE report points to a well-supplied outlook across major U.S. crops, with corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton all showing comfortable production levels heading into 2025. The update reflects strong yields, steady acreage, and demand that remains firm enough to support movement but not tight enough to draw down carryout significantly.

Corn remains the most significant driver of overall supply. USDA trimmed yield to 186 bushels per acre and lowered production slightly to 16.8 billion bushels, but larger beginning stocks more than offset those reductions. Exports were raised to 3.1 billion bushels on record fall shipment pace, pushing total demand higher. Even so, ending stocks increased to 2.2 billion bushels, and USDA raised the season-average price to $4.00 per bushel.

Soybean supplies tightened modestly due to lower carry-in and a smaller crop. Production is now estimated at 4.3 billion bushels with a 53-bushel yield, down slightly from prior expectations. USDA trimmed exports by 50 million bushels to 1.64 billion as U.S. price advantages narrowed against Brazil and Argentina. Ending stocks slipped only marginally, but stronger prices led USDA to raise the season-average price to $10.50 per bushel.

Wheat posted one of the report’s biggest supply increases. A record all-wheat yield lifted production to 1.985 billion bushels, up 58 million. With domestic use unchanged, nearly all the added supply flowed straight into ending stocks. USDA lowered the season-average price to $5.00 per bushel, reflecting both stronger production and softer market expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.

Cotton saw another sizable production increase as improved yields across most major states pushed output to 14.1 million bales — nearly 900,000 above September. USDA lifted exports to 12.2 million bales but raised ending stocks almost 20% to 4.3 million, generating a burdensome stocks-to-use ratio near 31%. The season-average upland price was lowered to 62 cents per pound as abundant supplies continue to weigh on the market.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Water access—not acreage alone—is driving where irrigation expands or contracts.
Credit stress is building for row-crop farms despite steady land values and slight price improvements.
Mike Steenhoek, with the Soy Transportation Commission, shares his outlook on current grain stocks and transportation lines amid bumper crops filling bins across the United States.
American soybean and corn leaders, along with Canada’s AgriFood sector, testified before the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office in support of the trade pact between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
Henning Strauss, CEO of STRAUSS, joins us to share his company’s commitment to crafting tools that farmers wear.
Milk output is rising, but steep drops in Class I–IV prices are tightening margins heading into 2026.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Strong export demand supports feed grain prices, but drought risk and seasonal patterns favor disciplined early-year marketing.
Corn export strength remains a key demand anchor, while China’s continued involvement in soybeans and sorghum bears close watching for price direction.
Preserving equity through active risk management remains critical in a volatile, supply-driven market.
Weather, Tight Supplies, and Planning Shape Farm Decisions
Bigger cows must wean proportionally heavier calves to justify higher ownership costs.
Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.