NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — The markets are eager to get a hold of this month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Forecast (WASDE) report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), which is set for release midday Tuesday (PDF Version). However, many analysts are not expecting fireworks from today’s report.
The trade estimates U.S. corn ending stocks to be in line with previous estimates, around 2.2 billion bushels. On the soybean side, same story, with 351 million bushels there, compared to prior estimates of 350. For wheat, ending stocks are expected to land at 915 million bushels, not far from previous estimates of 926.
Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale, Inc., told RFD NEWS that traders are still working to digest last month’s corn numbers.
“Trade is still quite disappointed with those numbers here from January, 2.2 billion bushels, and for [February’s] report, USDA probably does not have much of a reason to move too far from those numbers,” Nelson says. “Export sales -- sure, we’re a little ahead of USDA’s current goal – on the other hand, though, corn for ethanol is certainly running behind. Also, Friday’s EIA data on November ethanol production, which allowed us to compute November efficiency numbers here, still show higher levels than last year. So, we do have a hindrance on the corn demand side.”
On the world crop production side, it is also a similar story. Estimates for Brazil and Argentina are both coming in right in line with prior USDA estimates.
China Picks Up More U.S. Soybeans
However, there is good news for commodity growers in the headlines outside of the USCMA: China returned to the U.S. soybean market this week. Trader Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions told RFD NEWS this is just one of the wins the soy complex has scored in recent days.
“We had big volumes last week. We had funds buying over 100,000 contracts of soybeans on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday to end last week,” Hoops says. And Friday’s volume of soybeans was over 932,000 contracts traded. That’s a new all-time record, beating Wednesday’s record. So, we’ve seen record volumes at the end of last week in soybeans. Heavy volume during that time frame. And sometimes when you get big volumes, it’s either at a market top or at a market bottom. And with the South American harvest starting to pick up a little pace, I think a lot of the trade is leaning toward this as closer to a market top than a bottom.”
Flash sales data show that China scooped up 264,000 metric tons of U.S. beans this week. Hoops says if South American weather does not improve soon, more sales could be on the horizon.
“As you can imagine, with a little bit of harvest delays, they are slightly behind now. They’re starting to pick up, and this week looks a little bit wet in some areas,” Hoops says. “Those get some harvesting done, of course, but with that harvest staying behind schedule, that could lead to a little bit more U.S. export business. That’s my guess why China is stepping in here and buying a little bit more soybeans from the United States.”
Hoops says he believes China will likely slow U.S. purchases here in the coming months, instead looking to South American markets, but only if the weather there improves.
WASDE Impact: Less Price Movement, More Acreage Shifting
Farmers are making a number of decisions as they prepare for spring planting, from shifting acres to input purchases. While today’s WASDE report is expected to have limited market reaction, the updated figures could help influence future planning.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report with his WASDE outlook ahead of the report’s afternoon release.
In his interview with RFD NEWS, Williamson explained why the February WASDE report has historically brought smaller price moves and whether he thinks the report will impact market expectations heading into spring. He also shared what he has heard from producers regarding shifting acreage for the 2026 planting season.
Williamson also touched on the upcoming formal review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in July and how those conversations and other trade developments could impact farmers here in the U.S.
Ag Groups Join Forces to Support USMCA
The Ag Coalition for USMCA is preparing to drop its own report today as North American officials prepare to review the trade pact this summer. Trade between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico is an issue many sectors across the ag industry have been waiting for, but many are unsure what to expect.
President Trump recently called the USMCA “irrelevant,” saying Canada gets much more out of the deal than the United States.
However, industry leaders like Krista Swanson with the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) tell RFD NEWS that the pact’s importance has only grown since it was brokered during President Trump’s first term.
“About 40% of our corn exports go to Mexico, and about 40% of our ethanol exports go to Canada,” Swanson explains. “So, collectively thinking about corn and ethanol, important markets. These were already important markets before USMCA, but they have grown in importance and market share since then. So, I think that speaks to the testament of the importance of this.”
Stay with RFD NEWS on the Market Day Report, Rural Evening News, and our online platforms for expert analysis on both reports.
