WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — USDA expects food prices to rise again in 2026, with restaurant prices outpacing grocery costs. The outlook points to continued pressure on consumers even though inflation remains well below the spikes seen earlier this decade.
The Economic Research Service forecasts overall food prices to be up 2.9 percent this year. Food-at-home prices are projected to rise 2.4 percent, while food-away-from-home prices are expected to rise 3.6 percent.
Beef remains a key driver. Beef and veal prices were 12.1 percent above a year ago in March, and USDA forecasts a 6.3 percent increase for 2026 as cattle supplies stay tight and demand stays firm.
Egg prices moved in the other direction. They fell 3.3 percent from February and were 44.7 percent below a year earlier in March. USDA expects egg prices to drop 29.4 percent in 2026 as production improves.
USDA also expects stronger gains for fresh vegetables, sugar and sweets, and nonalcoholic beverages. Pork, poultry, and fresh fruit should see milder increases, while dairy prices are expected to decline.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Food inflation is still building in 2026, with beef leading pressure while eggs and dairy offer some relief.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Dr. David Anderson says lean beef demand and lighter cow culling are still giving cull cow prices room to push higher.
The inverted Choice-Select spread is not a strong warning sign in today’s tighter, higher-quality beef market, according to new analysis from Terrain.
National Pork Producers Council President Rob Brenneman joins us to discuss Prop 12 provisions in the House’s Farm Bill as it heads to the Senate for debate.
U.S. Cattlemen’s Association President Justin Tupper joins us to discuss the DOJ packer investigation, industry competition, and the outlook for cattle producers.
Practical changes to retailer stocking standards promote more options all while reducing fraud and abuse in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
Jonathan Braley joins us to discuss rising cybersecurity threats in agriculture, the risks of ransomware attacks, and how Food and Ag-ISAC’s new guide can help businesses better protect themselves.
