NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its 2025 Farm Income Forecast to $179.8 billion, down slightly from February’s $180.1 billion projection. Despite the adjustment, net farm income is still projected to rise nearly 40 percent compared to 2024, largely due to stronger livestock markets and a surge in government payments.
AgAmerica Lending notes that direct government payments are forecast at $40.5 billion, a 356 percent increase from last year, primarily tied to disaster aid and new farm program funding.
Crop markets remain under pressure, however, with receipts for corn, soybeans, and wheat expected to decline. In contrast, receipts for cattle, hogs, and poultry are forecast to be higher on tighter herds and stronger demand.
Rising production expenses remain a concern, with labor and livestock costs climbing even as feed, fuel, and pesticide expenses ease. Farm debt is also forecast to increase to $592 billion, but asset values—especially farmland—continue to support balance sheets. While the short-term outlook is positive, analysts stress that volatility in trade and interest rates could pressure farm finances in the longer term.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Livestock and government payments provide a boost, but crop receipts and rising expenses continue to put pressure on margins. Strong financial planning remains key in a volatile environment.
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The September WASDE report comes out on Friday at Noon ET. As always, we’ll bring you those numbers right here on Market Day Report along with our expert
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Let’s take a look at harvest progress as of early September 2025, across all 50 U.S. States, prepared by Market Day Report anchor and RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James.
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Experts estimate the flooding from Hurricane Helene caused more than $1.3 billion in damage to Tennessee agriculture.
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Pressure to lower gas prices across the Golden State could be the saving grace of this year’s corn harvest. California may soon be the final U.S. state to approve E-15 sales.
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Both Congressional Ag Committees took up the bill over the summer, but there’s no word on when the Senate could move forward; it does expire on September 30.
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As the Trump Administration seeks out new global trade partnerships, Congress is considering more support for farmers, which comes as the Federal Reserve warns that farmers need a safety net.
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