WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Wheat markets rallied after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut U.S. winter wheat production and tightened the new-crop balance sheet. NASS forecasts winter wheat production at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2025, with the national yield dropping to 47.6 bushels per acre.
The sharpest cut came in hard red winter wheat. USDA pegs HRW production at 515 million bushels, down 36 percent from last year.
Soft red winter is forecast at 301 million bushels, down 15 percent, while white winter is down 5 percent.
WASDE projects all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million from last year. Ending stocks are forecast at 762 million bushels, down 18 percent.
USDA also lowered its export estimate to 775 million bushels because tighter supplies and higher prices are expected to limit U.S. competitiveness.
The season-average farm price is projected at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Land values are increasing faster than farm income, making it more challenging for young and beginning farmers to expand, but supporting equity for current landowners.
September 29, 2025 09:58 AM
·
Smaller flocks and lower lay rates are pressuring table egg supplies, even as hatchery activity edges higher.
September 26, 2025 04:58 PM
·
Strong corn exports are anchoring U.S. trade, while soybean sales remain steady, but shipments lag.
September 26, 2025 04:48 PM
·
Smaller slaughter numbers across beef and pork signal tighter supplies into late 2025, while record-low veal production highlights ongoing structural changes in the sector.
September 26, 2025 04:35 PM
·
Lower inventories and cautious farrowing plans suggest tighter hog supplies into 2026, keeping producer margins sensitive to demand trends and health risks.
September 26, 2025 11:28 AM
·
Transportation challenges are mounting as droughts lower Mississippi River levels and push freight rates higher.
September 25, 2025 04:54 PM
·
