WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Wheat markets rallied after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut U.S. winter wheat production and tightened the new-crop balance sheet. NASS forecasts winter wheat production at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2025, with the national yield dropping to 47.6 bushels per acre.
The sharpest cut came in hard red winter wheat. USDA pegs HRW production at 515 million bushels, down 36 percent from last year.
Soft red winter is forecast at 301 million bushels, down 15 percent, while white winter is down 5 percent.
WASDE projects all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million from last year. Ending stocks are forecast at 762 million bushels, down 18 percent.
USDA also lowered its export estimate to 775 million bushels because tighter supplies and higher prices are expected to limit U.S. competitiveness.
The season-average farm price is projected at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Tight red meat supplies continue supporting livestock markets.
March 26, 2026 10:50 AM
·
Experts warn pests could reduce yields and raise costs for producers
March 25, 2026 04:43 PM
·
ASFMRA’s Tony Toso joins us with an update on California farmland values, ongoing market uncertainty, and key discussions shaping agriculture in the Golden State.
March 25, 2026 03:57 PM
·
Recent USDA reports show a steady feedlot supply despite growing consumer demand for beef, ahead of typical seasonal summer trends.
March 25, 2026 03:22 PM
·
Citrus production depends heavily on reliable irrigation, making water shortages a critical issue for South Texas growers moving forward.
March 25, 2026 01:47 PM
·
Lower costs improve competitiveness, but demand remains uncertain.
March 25, 2026 10:00 AM
·
