WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Wheat markets rallied after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut U.S. winter wheat production and tightened the new-crop balance sheet. NASS forecasts winter wheat production at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2025, with the national yield dropping to 47.6 bushels per acre.
The sharpest cut came in hard red winter wheat. USDA pegs HRW production at 515 million bushels, down 36 percent from last year.
Soft red winter is forecast at 301 million bushels, down 15 percent, while white winter is down 5 percent.
WASDE projects all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million from last year. Ending stocks are forecast at 762 million bushels, down 18 percent.
USDA also lowered its export estimate to 775 million bushels because tighter supplies and higher prices are expected to limit U.S. competitiveness.
The season-average farm price is projected at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
RFD NEWS Markets Specialist Tony St. James reviews the USDA’s Farms and Land in Farms 2025 Summary.
February 18, 2026 01:38 PM
·
Strong corn exports support prices while soybeans lag yearly pace. However, large carryover stocks limit upside despite solid yields.
February 18, 2026 12:41 PM
·
Fuel costs ease over the long term, but fertilizer energy remains volatile.
February 18, 2026 11:47 AM
·
Weskan Grain CEO Will Bramblett discusses the antitrust lawsuit filed by grain farmers and agribusinesses, and its potential implications on rail competition and market access.
February 17, 2026 01:41 PM
·
Jim Rothermich with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers joined us to share the latest on farmland real estate markets across the Midwest.
February 17, 2026 12:48 PM
·
Adequate transportation capacity exists, but fuel costs and soft river demand could widen basis risk.
February 16, 2026 05:00 PM
·
