NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Markets are preparing for USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, due out on Tuesday, as private analysts release early expectations for the 2026-27 marketing year.
Current estimates suggest U.S. corn and soybean production could remain close to prior forecasts. However, wheat is drawing the most attention, with traders expecting total wheat production to come in roughly 200 million bushels below last year’s levels.
The lower outlook follows months of drought stress across major winter wheat regions, where some producers have abandoned fields or shifted acres to grazing instead of harvest.
Analysts say the upcoming WASDE report could trigger increased market volatility once the numbers are released, but they caution that supply and demand estimates will continue to evolve throughout the growing season.
“It’s just a number. It’s on paper. It’ll get traded,” Brady Huck explained. “But it’s going to change over the course of the coming year. So future demand for new crop on those balance sheets, what will the USDA pencil in for those numbers? Where will the ending stocks be at for each of those crops? And one of the biggest questions I have, Tony, is how the USDA is going to play the wheat production story? We have a smaller wheat crop production problem in the West, and what’s the USDA going to do with the wheat supply situation ahead?”
Market analyst Todd Hubbs says global production trends and ongoing market volatility will also shape the outlook.
“Globally, you know, it should be lower. It should be lower, and I think they’ll reflect that domestically,” Hubbs said. “I expect, you know, we’re going to get a production report. We’ll see what they say for the wheat crop right now. I think you’re going to see it be what everybody’s expecting to be, a little bit lower. And I think the exports is where you’re going to see that reflected. We’ve seen export sales slow down a little bit on the old crop across most of the classes. And we tend to see that. We’re going to roll some over into the new marketing year. Our new marketing year’s outstanding sales are behind last year just a little bit. It’s something to look out for, but I don’t think it’s pressing right now.”
As harvest approaches, Hubbs says tighter wheat supplies could strengthen basis levels, although large old-crop inventories from last year’s harvest are still weighing on the market.
“But I think you’ll see in wheat, I think you’ll see lower production and lower export numbers,” Hubbs continued. “In corn, it’s a real guessing game. They’re going to be stuck with the acreage they were given in March. They’re going to use a trend yield, and all the demand will be based on what the production and carry out is. I think you could see them raise old crop export some, because we are absolutely moving the corn still.”
