U.S. beef exports to China have been stalled since early March, and chicken exports dropped nearly 50 percent back in February.
Economists with StoneX have been watching the situation, and say they are not holding their breath for a resolution anytime soon, pointing to the high approval rating of China’s president.
“Xi Jinping is the one who has the courage to stand up to America, and so a sense of nationalism is very strong in China right now, and Xi Jinping’s popularity is very high. And so, if he negotiates, he risks looking weak in doing so, and that’s also an incentive for him not to negotiate. I don’t expect an agreement with China anytime soon. A little bit sobering related to that, USDA currently projects ending stocks of soybeans in China at 44 million metric tons. That’s surplus supplies. That’s nearly twice what they bought from us this year,” said Arlan Suderman.
China’s government recently distributed a propaganda video condemning the U.S., accusing America of bullying other countries into submission. Suderman says this situation is likely to be a defining moment in the fight for the largest economy and military in the world.
Traders say that shift could eventually prompt the USDA to scale back soybean export projections, noting the outlook differs greatly for other grain commodities.
January 30, 2026 01:13 PM
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Often overlooked, cotton wholesalers act as stabilizers during market stress, translating fragmented retail demand into workable production programs for mills and manufacturers.
January 30, 2026 08:00 AM
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Early indications suggest the U.S. cattle industry may be nearing the end of its liquidation phase. Oklahoma State University livestock economist Dr. Derrell Peel says the industry could be at or near the cyclical low.
January 29, 2026 12:44 PM
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Reliable waterways lower costs, protect export demand, and support long-term farm profitability.
January 29, 2026 06:00 AM
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USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg joined us with a recap of the Malaysia trade mission and a look at USDA’s broader trade strategy moving forward.
January 28, 2026 01:49 PM
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Mike Steenhoek of the Soy Transportation Coalition shares how extreme winter weather is affecting the ag transportation network and what producers should keep in mind as conditions slowly improve.
January 28, 2026 01:36 PM
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