We shouldn’t expect a deal with China soon, according to an economist

U.S. beef exports to China have been stalled since early March, and chicken exports dropped nearly 50 percent back in February.

Economists with StoneX have been watching the situation, and say they are not holding their breath for a resolution anytime soon, pointing to the high approval rating of China’s president.

“Xi Jinping is the one who has the courage to stand up to America, and so a sense of nationalism is very strong in China right now, and Xi Jinping’s popularity is very high. And so, if he negotiates, he risks looking weak in doing so, and that’s also an incentive for him not to negotiate. I don’t expect an agreement with China anytime soon. A little bit sobering related to that, USDA currently projects ending stocks of soybeans in China at 44 million metric tons. That’s surplus supplies. That’s nearly twice what they bought from us this year,” said Arlan Suderman.

China’s government recently distributed a propaganda video condemning the U.S., accusing America of bullying other countries into submission. Suderman says this situation is likely to be a defining moment in the fight for the largest economy and military in the world.

Related Stories
U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD) shares his outlook on the developing U.S.-China Trade agreement, and the ongoing impact of the federal government shutdown—now stretching past four weeks—on rural communities and producers.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to discuss what the Carney-Xi meeting could mean for Canadian producers.
Texas A&M livestock economist Dr. David Anderson joins Tony St. James to discuss the geopolitical tensions and U.S.-Mexico border closure that are leading to sharp swings in the cattle market.
Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association (ASA), shares his reaction to news of soybean sales to China, which is considered both “welcome news” and a return to near-normal trade relations.
Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
Farm Bureau Economist Faith Parum discusses key outcomes from the U.S.-China trade agreement and the benefits of expanding trade across Southeast Asia.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

University of Nebraska–Lincoln ag educator Matt Kreifels discusses his recent FFA Alumni award and the future of ag education.
Mexico plans to release 202,000 acre-feet of water into the Rio Grande, offering temporary relief to South Texas farmers as Congress advances the PERMIT Act.
Analysts say that while low-income households are facing financial pressures, other middle- and higher-income consumers are helping fill the gap for retail beef demand.
Despite China’s sharp drop in grain purchases this year, new USDA export data this week shows that even some buying activity from the trade giant still moves the markets.