NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — A softer U.S. dollar is providing only modest support for agricultural exports, with underlying supply and demand remaining the primary drivers of trade.
Analysis from Terrain economist Matt Clark, “The U.S. Dollar Dilemma,” shows the U.S. Dollar Index has declined more than 12 percent since early 2025, typically a signal of improved export competitiveness. However, that index is heavily weighted toward currencies such as the euro, yen, and pound, which account for a relatively small share of U.S. agricultural trade.
When adjusted for actual trading partners, the picture changes. Trade-weighted exchange rates for crops and tree nuts are only about 1.2 percent below recent averages, while livestock exchange rates are slightly higher than in 2023 and 2024. That suggests limited improvement in purchasing power among key buyers such as China and Mexico.
Currency moves are also being offset by global dynamics. Competing exporters, including Brazil, are seeing similar currency shifts, reducing any advantage from a weaker dollar.
With global supplies of major commodities still ample, export growth will depend more on demand conditions than currency movement alone.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Exports depend more on demand than currency shifts.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Gretchen Kuck of the National Corn Growers Association joined us to discuss the Ag Coalition for USMCA’s report findings and expectations ahead of the upcoming USMCA review.
February 11, 2026 12:17 PM
·
Strong corn exports offer support, while soybeans and wheat remain weighed down by ample global supplies, according to the USDA’s latest WASDE report for February.
February 10, 2026 04:25 PM
·
Higher livestock prices reflect resilient demand, even as disease and herd shifts reshape 2026 supply expectations.
February 10, 2026 04:11 PM
·
Kevin Charleston of Specialty Risk Insurance discusses the importance of grain bin safety and joint efforts with Nationwide to provide farmers and first responders with access to critical, life-saving rescue tubes.
February 10, 2026 03:57 PM
·
RealAg Radio host Sean Haney outlines the Trump Administration’s current trade priorities and what meaningful market expansion looks like for farmers.
February 10, 2026 03:08 PM
·
Bankruptcy filings reflect prolonged margin pressure, rising debt, and limited financial flexibility across farm country. Bigger operating loans are helping farms manage costs, but they also signal growing reliance on borrowed capital.
February 10, 2026 01:35 PM
·
