LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — A new model outlining the beef supply chain shows how value shifts from pasture to retail, highlighting how timing, costs, and yields determine who captures margins.
Hyrum Egbert, writing in the Big Bad Beefpacker newsletter, developed a framework that tracks cattle through cow-calf, stocker, feedyard, packer, and retail stages using consistent weights, pricing, and cost structures. The model follows an 18-month lifecycle and aligns each stage with appropriate pricing benchmarks, from live cattle values to boxed beef and retail pricing.
The analysis emphasizes that margins are not fixed within one segment. Instead, profitability varies with market conditions, input costs, and the sector holding risk at any given time. Feed costs, cattle prices, and beef demand all influence how value is distributed across the chain.
Yield and shrink also play a critical role. The model estimates a loss of roughly 11 to 12 percent from carcass to retail cuts and an additional 8 percent at the retail level, underscoring how much product never reaches the consumer.
The framework highlights that changes in any one part of the system — from weights to pricing assumptions — can shift margins across the entire chain.
