Weather Remains the Biggest Driver of Grain Markets as Global Risks Mount, Analyst Says

Lewis Williamson discusses the latest USDA Crop Progress report, weather, Black Sea exports, tariffs, and other factors shaping corn and soybean markets this summer.

CARMI, Ill. (RFD NEWS) — Weather continues to drive grain markets this summer as farmers monitor crop conditions during a critical stage of the growing season.

Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to discuss the latest USDA Crop Progress report and the broader factors influencing commodity markets.

In his interview with RFD News, Williamson said the latest crop ratings were largely “uneventful,” noting he expected to see more deterioration in conditions. He added that crop conditions remain strong in many areas, citing “awesome, beautiful corn” in Minnesota while Louisiana producers are beginning harvest but leaving some corn in the field because moisture levels remain elevated.

Beyond weather, Williamson pointed to several global market influences, including uncertainty surrounding Black Sea grain exports, drought concerns in Europe, fertilizer availability tied to the Strait of Hormuz, strong soybean crush margins, healthy ethanol margins and continued export demand.

He also discussed President Trump’s newly announced tariffs on Canadian goods, saying the move appears intended to bring Canada back to the negotiating table during ongoing USMCA discussions.

Related Stories
The tool tracks prices, supplies and transportation costs affecting farmers.
The initiative can also introduce U.S. wheat to new potential customers, creating relationships that may continue even after food aid programs end.
The Black Sea is a major export route for wheat, corn, and other agricultural commodities. Recent attacks, however, are disrupting exports from Russia and Ukraine.
Stronger processing and feed demand are supporting China’s soybean market, while Brazil remains the dominant supplier.

Marion is a digital content manager for RFD News and FarmHER + RanchHER. She started working for Rural Media Group in May 2022, bringing a decade of digital experience in broadcast media and some cooking experience to the team.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Kubota Tractor Corporation President Alex Woods credits customer trust and a strong dealer network for the milestone.
USDA funding will support work at 14 generation sites and improve reliability for farmers.
Weak tractor and combine sales show producers remain cautious about committing capital to major equipment purchases.
Rural cancer patients often face significant barriers to receiving specialized care, with many forced to travel long distances for treatment.
Farm Bureau says fresh fruit and vegetable imports have surged 70% since 2010, creating new competition for U.S. growers during harvest seasons.
Fordyce said the meetings give producers an opportunity to communicate directly with USDA officials about issues affecting their operations.
Agriculture Shows
Agriculture is the most important industry in the world, and Ag PhD Daily brings you the information you need to best manage your business only on RFD-TV and RFD+
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.