Weather Remains the Biggest Driver of Grain Markets as Global Risks Mount, Analyst Says

Lewis Williamson discusses the latest USDA Crop Progress report, weather, Black Sea exports, tariffs, and other factors shaping corn and soybean markets this summer.

CARMI, Ill. (RFD NEWS) — Weather continues to drive grain markets this summer as farmers monitor crop conditions during a critical stage of the growing season.

Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to discuss the latest USDA Crop Progress report and the broader factors influencing commodity markets.

In his interview with RFD News, Williamson said the latest crop ratings were largely “uneventful,” noting he expected to see more deterioration in conditions. He added that crop conditions remain strong in many areas, citing “awesome, beautiful corn” in Minnesota while Louisiana producers are beginning harvest but leaving some corn in the field because moisture levels remain elevated.

Beyond weather, Williamson pointed to several global market influences, including uncertainty surrounding Black Sea grain exports, drought concerns in Europe, fertilizer availability tied to the Strait of Hormuz, strong soybean crush margins, healthy ethanol margins and continued export demand.

He also discussed President Trump’s newly announced tariffs on Canadian goods, saying the move appears intended to bring Canada back to the negotiating table during ongoing USMCA discussions.

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Marion is a digital content manager for RFD News and FarmHER + RanchHER. She started working for Rural Media Group in May 2022, bringing a decade of digital experience in broadcast media and some cooking experience to the team.

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