When is it going to end? Fed might increase interest rates before making any cuts

Higher interest rates have taken a toll on Rural America. While most farmers would like them to come down, it is looking more and more unlikely.

Economist Ben Brown says they could inch up before they come back down:

“Given the inflation data that we’ve seen both at the consumer level and at the wholesale level the last couple of months, I have a really hard time seeing how the Fed can just maintain interest rates where they’re at—and certainly I wouldn’t remove the possibility of an interest rate hike here before May or June,” Brown said. “To look at last week’s inflation data, the Consumer Price Index came up month-over-month higher than even what the expectations are. That’s the third straight month that we’ve seen inflation come in hotter than expected, and the Producer Price Index was also up, signaling that wholesale inflation will eventually trickle down to consumer inflation as well, so I do think we’re seeing the prices increase faster than they expected. I think that’s got the Federal Reserve a little bit concerned.”
Ben Brown, Economist

This month’s inflation reports both came in hotter than expected, showing high prices remain sticky. Brown says he believes prices are still rising faster than expected, and that could lead the Fed to take action in the coming weeks.

Related Stories
In a landmark ruling delivered in late 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court significantly narrowed the scope of the National Environmental Policy Act.
Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
RFD NEWS Correspondent Frank McCaffrey speaks with Texas’s Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez about USMCA renegotiation and its impact on U.S.–Mexico agriculture trade.
Rising rural business confidence supports local ag economies, but taxes and labor shortages remain key constraints.
CoBank Knowledge Exchange’s Jeff Johnston shares the group’s positive perspective on expanding data centers into rural areas and weighs the risks and rewards for those communities.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer discusses how January’s WASDE report could impact ARC and PLC payments and updates on disaster relief programs as farmers navigate a challenging market environment.
Texas Commissioner of Agriculture Sid Miller joined us to discuss data center expansion, farmland preservation, rural economic impacts, and imminent cattle biosecurity concerns affecting agriculture today.
National Corn Growers Association Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses corn supply pressures, market fundamentals, policy considerations, and producer outlook for the year ahead.
Soft equipment sales signal cautious farm spending as producers prioritize cash flow over expansion.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

AFBF Economist Faith Parum discusses the financial challenges currently facing farmers and the Farm Bureau’s 2026 outlook for the farm economy.
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
Ethanol and corn groups are not hiding their disappointment over new reports that the bill to allow year-round E15 sales failed as Congress forges ahead on government funding, with another shutdown looming.
While row crops are expected to see softer impacts, analysts say severe weather of this magnitude will not be as kind to cattle producers.
Cape Cod FarmHER Chloe Starr dives into the world of shellfish farming at one of the few oyster & clam hatcheries in the U.S.
University of Nebraska President Dr. Jeffrey Gold joined us to discuss seasonal affective disorder, winter mental health, and practical strategies for maintaining well-being in rural communities.