AFBF Economist: E15 Expansion Could Strengthen Corn Demand and U.S. Energy Security

A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol’s role as a major market for corn and a key pillar of U.S. energy security is back in focus as policymakers debate nationwide, year-round E15 sales, according to analysis by Faith Parum, Ph.D., economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). With gasoline demand projected to decline over the next decade, expanding E15 access is emerging as one of the most important levers for protecting long-term ethanol demand — and the billions of bushels of corn tied to it.

Ethanol currently consumes about 5.6 billion bushels of corn annually, but blend rates have stalled near E10, and outdated summer volatility rules restrict E15 sales in many states. Even with EPA’s temporary summer waivers, the lack of a permanent policy creates uncertainty for retailers and slows investment in pumps, tanks, and signage needed to grow adoption.

For corn farmers, the stakes are large. Without higher blends, domestic ethanol use could fall by 400 million bushels over the next decade. By contrast, moving entirely to year-round E15 could require up to 2.4 billion additional bushels of corn each year—a transformational shift for rural economies and biofuel markets.

Regionally, more than 3,000 U.S. stations already offer E15, and major automakers approve it for modern vehicles. Consumers also benefit: E15 often costs 10–30 cents less per gallon and cuts tailpipe emissions by roughly 46%, strengthening both household budgets and environmental performance.

Farm-Level Takeaway: A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Rex Gray, Corn Product Manager for Golden Harvest, discusses how the company works side-by-side with farmers to develop strong-performing hybrids built to fit their acres.
Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer shares his perspective on the uncertain outlook of federal farm relief and the Farm Bill, which may not materialize until the government shutdown ends.
As the government shutdown pushes the farm economy closer to the brink, Sens. Grassley and Ernst of Iowa are raising their voices for agriculture.
U.S. Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report to share why Ames is uniquely positioned to support expanded USDA operations.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Tariffs are pushing up input costs, with fertilizer prices rising $100 per ton and machinery costs climbing due to steel and parts duties.
Harvested acres are estimated at 90.0 million, making this year’s corn crop one of the largest since the 1930s.
U.S. producers are holding off on equipment investments amid financial pressure, market uncertainty, a rising demand for diesel, and growing desperation for trade wins.
How many burgers could you buy instead of a house?
Let’s take a look at harvest progress as of early September 2025, across all 50 U.S. States, prepared by Market Day Report anchor and RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James.