AFBF Economist: E15 Expansion Could Strengthen Corn Demand and U.S. Energy Security

A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol’s role as a major market for corn and a key pillar of U.S. energy security is back in focus as policymakers debate nationwide, year-round E15 sales, according to analysis by Faith Parum, Ph.D., economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). With gasoline demand projected to decline over the next decade, expanding E15 access is emerging as one of the most important levers for protecting long-term ethanol demand — and the billions of bushels of corn tied to it.

Ethanol currently consumes about 5.6 billion bushels of corn annually, but blend rates have stalled near E10, and outdated summer volatility rules restrict E15 sales in many states. Even with EPA’s temporary summer waivers, the lack of a permanent policy creates uncertainty for retailers and slows investment in pumps, tanks, and signage needed to grow adoption.

For corn farmers, the stakes are large. Without higher blends, domestic ethanol use could fall by 400 million bushels over the next decade. By contrast, moving entirely to year-round E15 could require up to 2.4 billion additional bushels of corn each year—a transformational shift for rural economies and biofuel markets.

Regionally, more than 3,000 U.S. stations already offer E15, and major automakers approve it for modern vehicles. Consumers also benefit: E15 often costs 10–30 cents less per gallon and cuts tailpipe emissions by roughly 46%, strengthening both household budgets and environmental performance.

Farm-Level Takeaway: A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
While the agriculture industry hoped details on proposed “bridge” payments for farmers would be released this week, Ag Secretary Brook Rollins said the USDA is still working with the White House on the finer points.
Federal lawyers submitted a brief this week backing Bayer’s argument that federal laws governing herbicides like Roundup should prevent lawsuits over the popular chemical.
The Environmental Protection Agency confirms that new single-fluorinated pesticides are not PFAS and remain fully compliant with current safety standards.
Pressure on grain storage capacity and stronger export positioning are pushing more grain onto railroads, highways, and river systems as logistics become a key bottleneck this fall.
Tryston Beyrer, Crop Nutrition Lead at The Mosaic Company, examines planning trends as producers weigh corn and soybean plantings for 2026.
Despite the need for swift action, many ag lawmakers and industry groups argue that farm aid alone will likely not be sufficient to help farmers without improved trade relations with China.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

A rescheduled WASDE, China’s soybean squeeze, barge bottlenecks, and premium beef demand all collide this week — with cash decisions, basis, and risk plans on the line.
China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
America’s love for burgers depends on open markets. Without lean beef imports, prices would skyrocket, crushing demand and destabilizing the beef industry.
High milk production and soft retail demand are squeezing prices and margins — making careful feed and risk management essential through year-end.
Arizona producers are proving that desert farming and water conservation can coexist through technology, reuse, and efficiency — reinforcing both food security and environmental stewardship.
Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.