AFBF: USDA Slashes 2025 Farm Income Outlook, Sets Baseline for ‘Significant Pressure’ into 2026

Danny Munch of the American Farm Bureau joined us to discuss USDA’s latest farm income forecast, revisions to prior estimates, and what the updated data means for farmers heading into 2026.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its first Net Farm Income Forecast since September, providing an early look at the financial conditions facing farmers in 2026. The report also includes revisions to USDA’s previous estimates for 2025, reshaping how last year’s farm economy is viewed and establishing a new baseline for the year ahead.

American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to break down the latest forecast and what it signals for the broader farm economy.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Munch explained that the new outlook offers insight into how producers may fare financially in 2026, as income pressures continue across much of the agricultural sector.

The updated report also revises figures released last fall, and Munch highlighted how the new numbers differ from the September forecast. Those changes reflect shifts in commodity prices, production costs, and government payments that altered the final picture of farm income in 2025.

Munch addressed how rising farm debt and ongoing income declines are affecting farmers, and how producers are adjusting their operations and financial strategies to manage continued economic pressure.

Related Stories
Corn and sorghum exports continue outperforming soybeans.
Expanding supplies are weighing on global coffee and cocoa prices.
NMPF’s Alan Bjerga discusses pending trade agreements with Indonesia and Ecuador and how they will benefit U.S. dairy producers and improve overall global competitiveness of U.S. ag products.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities discusses how tensions in the Middle East are impacting producer’s spring planting decisions.
Farm Legal expert Roger McEowen discusses new dicamba regulations, compliance requirements for growers, and the evolving outlook for herbicide use.
Land values remain key to borrowing strength.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Real Ag’s Shaun Haney explains how farmers are approaching risk management and the steps they’re taking to strengthen profitability through better financial planning.
Valley Irrigation’s Darren Siekman explains the advantages of their new pivots for growers managing acreages of up to 60 acres.
Dr. Jeffrey Gold discusses spring allergies and respiratory illnesses on this week’s Rural Health Matters, offering advice on managing symptoms and knowing when to seek professional help.
ASFMRA’s George Baird shares insight on spring planting progress, acreage trends, and the financial factors influencing Mid-South farmers this season.
Jeramy Stephens with National Land Realty explains how the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and ongoing ‘America First’ trade policy raise new questions about U.S. farmland values and agricultural market stability.
Heavy cattle weights are cushioning beef supplies despite shrinking herd numbers.