AFBF: USDA Slashes 2025 Farm Income Outlook, Sets Baseline for ‘Significant Pressure’ into 2026

Danny Munch of the American Farm Bureau joined us to discuss USDA’s latest farm income forecast, revisions to prior estimates, and what the updated data means for farmers heading into 2026.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its first Net Farm Income Forecast since September, providing an early look at the financial conditions facing farmers in 2026. The report also includes revisions to USDA’s previous estimates for 2025, reshaping how last year’s farm economy is viewed and establishing a new baseline for the year ahead.

American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to break down the latest forecast and what it signals for the broader farm economy.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Munch explained that the new outlook offers insight into how producers may fare financially in 2026, as income pressures continue across much of the agricultural sector.

The updated report also revises figures released last fall, and Munch highlighted how the new numbers differ from the September forecast. Those changes reflect shifts in commodity prices, production costs, and government payments that altered the final picture of farm income in 2025.

Munch addressed how rising farm debt and ongoing income declines are affecting farmers, and how producers are adjusting their operations and financial strategies to manage continued economic pressure.

Related Stories
USDA says both crops remain ahead of the five-year average as farmers continue monitoring dry Corn Belt conditions.
Texas Farm Bureau takes us behind the scenes at USDA’s sterile fly facility, considered a first line of defense against New World Screwworm, a fight Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller fears is “futile.”
RealAg Radio’s Shaun Haney joins us to discuss Canadian farmer sentiment, saying many are also struggling with profitability and long-term outlook in agriculture.
Several fires have merged into Kansas’ largest active wildfire as crews continue battling shifting winds and dry conditions.
The Texas Agriculture Commissioner says crews are still working to contain fires while farmers and ranchers begin assessing damage.
USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom joins us to discuss China’s renewed access for U.S. beef facilities, the outlook for exports, and key conversations taking place at this week’s Spring Conference.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The classification of persons conducting farming operations for a farm landowner—that is the topic of today’s blog post by RFD-TV farm-legal expert Roger A. McEowen.
Farm-legal expert Roger A. McEowen discusses avoiding contractual obligations in times of pandemic.
Is a handshake as good as your word? That is the topic of today’s blog post by RFD-TV farm legal expert Roger A. McEowen — the ability to enforce oral contracts for the sale of goods.
To mark the end of National Chicken Month, we take a look at how the U.S. poultry industry is making a slow and steady recovery following the widespread outbreak of High-Path Avian Flu (HPAI) in 2022 that devastated commercial flocks across the country.
Explore the culinary wonders of Camino’s Apple Hill, where tradition meets delicious innovation at community institutions like Larsen Apple Barn.
Calling all FarmHers! RFD-TV’s sister network, FarmHer, just announced a new initiative in the works to empower women in agriculture at a one-day event in Iowa this November.