AFBF: USDA Slashes 2025 Farm Income Outlook, Sets Baseline for ‘Significant Pressure’ into 2026

Danny Munch of the American Farm Bureau joined us to discuss USDA’s latest farm income forecast, revisions to prior estimates, and what the updated data means for farmers heading into 2026.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its first Net Farm Income Forecast since September, providing an early look at the financial conditions facing farmers in 2026. The report also includes revisions to USDA’s previous estimates for 2025, reshaping how last year’s farm economy is viewed and establishing a new baseline for the year ahead.

American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to break down the latest forecast and what it signals for the broader farm economy.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Munch explained that the new outlook offers insight into how producers may fare financially in 2026, as income pressures continue across much of the agricultural sector.

The updated report also revises figures released last fall, and Munch highlighted how the new numbers differ from the September forecast. Those changes reflect shifts in commodity prices, production costs, and government payments that altered the final picture of farm income in 2025.

Munch addressed how rising farm debt and ongoing income declines are affecting farmers, and how producers are adjusting their operations and financial strategies to manage continued economic pressure.

Related Stories
Brooks York with AgriSompo provide insight on crop insurance considerations and the decisions farmers are making as the enrollment deadline approaches.
Strong consumer demand supports livestock market outlook.
Surging energy markets are quickly becoming a cost story for U.S. agriculture as crude oil climbs on supply fears tied to the Middle East conflict.
Strike risk adds volatility to already tight markets.
Technology-driven lending decisions may shape the future availability of farm credit.
Strong corn demand and cotton shipments support export outlook.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Alan Bjerga of the National Milk Producers Federation discusses the Dairy Margin Coverage program, recent improvements, and what producers need to know ahead of this week’s enrollment deadline.
William Lee Golden joined us to talk about his farming roots, his storied career with the Oak Ridge Boys, and how his new book and music continue to reflect the values that have guided him throughout his life and career.
Glyphosate and phosphorus are deemed critical to U.S. national defense, ensuring farmers’ access while signaling a shift toward regenerative agriculture. RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney shares insight on the Trump Administration’s move and what it could mean for U.S. farmers moving forward.
Claire Woeppel, Central Region Vice President with the National FFA Organization, joined us to discuss Alumni Day, the lasting impact of FFA supporters, and why honoring that legacy matters during National FFA Week.
UNL Extension’s Troy Walz discusses the Nebraska Ranch Practicum, where sessions are held, how producers can get involved, and what ranchers can gain from participating in the program.
The Ranger Road Fire in the Oklahoma Panhandle is now 65% contained after burning nearly 300,000 acres over the past week. Kevin Charleston of Specialty Risk Insurance Agency discusses wildfire recovery, livestock insurance considerations, and the importance of preparedness for producers across the Southern Plains.