STILLWATER, Okla. (RFD News) — Ongoing restrictions on Mexican cattle imports continue impacting the cattle industry. Oklahoma State University livestock market economist Dr. Derrell Peel warns that the longer the border remains closed, the more difficult it may be to reverse some market changes.
“The longer it stays closed, the more implications there are for permanently changing things,” Peel said. “One thing that is clear — on Tuesday, when we were at the border, we had the current president of the Chihuahua Cattlemen’s Union there to talk to our group and share with them. The world doesn’t sit still just because the border is closed. That’s one point [...] that things will continue to change. The longer we make adjustments to deal with the situation, the more those things might become permanent in nature.”
Peel also said there are misconceptions surrounding Mexico’s ability to process and utilize cattle without access to the U.S. market.
“There’s a lot of feeling that Mexico has no ability to utilize these cattle, and that is absolutely wrong,” he explained. “They’ve got significant processing capabilities and cattle feeding capabilities. The longer they don’t export cattle to the U.S., the more they can utilize those cattle. And what they change on the other end is that it slows the backfilling of the industry from Central America, which is what they’ve been doing — which is honestly why we have a screwworm problem, but that’s a different story — the point is, they have infrastructure, and they can use those cattle, and they are using those cattle.”
According to Peel, there does not appear to be a significant backlog of cattle at this point, though reopening the border would still take time to normalize trade flows.
“I don’t believe there’s any significant backlog of cattle beyond what there would have been,” he said. “There are some calves that maybe they’ve held a couple of months, but they can’t hold them indefinitely. They’re moving. So if the border were to open anytime soon, it’ll take a while to get it ramped back up, especially as we go into summer. We don’t move a lot of cattle in the summertime anyway. And so by this fall, we could see some flow of cattle.”
Peel added that futures markets could initially react quickly to reopening news, though broader market fundamentals may temper expectations.
Meanwhile, the first official review of the USMCA trade pact is now just weeks away as U.S. trade officials begin another round of negotiations with Mexico.
The deputy U.S. trade representative is in Mexico City this week, taking part in the first of a series of bilateral meetings tied to the agreement.
Current discussions are focused on economic security and rules of origin while also ensuring the trade pact continues benefiting U.S. farmers, ranchers, manufacturers and businesses.
Another meeting is expected next month before the official USMCA review begins during the first week of July.
While trade officials prepare for USMCA talks, global demand for U.S. beef remains strong in many export markets.
USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom says export growth in other international regions points to broader momentum across the global beef market.
“The first quarter of 2026, our volume is down 11%, and the value is down about 9. I think it’s 9%. But if you take China out, we’re up 3% on volume. We’re up 9% on value. So the rest of the world is performing. The rest of the world is performing. So even in the first quarter, before we started talking about this China reenlistment, you got markets like Taiwan that are up. Mexico was up on beef. You got the Caribbean and DR region was up, which to me, Central America was up, which to me is amazing. We’re not record pricing, but we’re close. 390 choice cutout, you know, that’s a heavy lift for some of these markets that didn’t used to even buy choice and higher.”
Halstrom says several fast-growing export destinations are becoming increasingly important for U.S. beef sales.
“These are the four big buckets where we’ve seen the most growth. The Caribbean and Dr. look at that, more than doubled, $41 million up to $103 million. These are dollars, not per head, total millions of dollars. ASEAN region, 31 to 65 million, Central America, 20 to 63 million, and South America, which would be Chile, Peru, and Colombia primarily, 20 million to 48 million. And I can tell you this, the ASEAN region, we talk a lot about it, that probably has the most potential. Why? Because we probably have the most headwinds there in terms of barriers. I mentioned Indonesia a little bit ago on getting permits. That could easily be a three, $400 million a year opportunity once it ramps up. So the Caribbean and DR continue to amaze as well. And Central America, I never thought I’d see a day where El Salvador and Guatemala are demanding prime beef, but we’re seeing it today.”
Halstrom says one remaining question is how aggressively the industry should continue investing in emerging markets while also defending larger established export destinations.
