WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service now forecast fiscal year 2026 agricultural exports at $176.5 billion and imports at $205.5 billion. That leaves a projected $29 billion trade deficit, narrower than last year’s roughly $43.7 billion gap.
The improvement is uneven for crop producers. Corn export volume is projected near 3.23 billion bushels, up about 270 million bushels from last year, with export value holding at $18.5 billion.
Soybeans move the other direction. Export volume is forecast near 1.53 billion bushels, down about 344 million bushels from fiscal year 2025, while soybean export value falls to $18.6 billion.
China remains central to that pressure. Total U.S. agricultural exports to China are projected at $12 billion, down from $16.2 billion last year, while Mexico leads export markets at $31.4 billion.
The quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade projects activity through September 30. For row-crop farmers, stronger corn demand supports the trade picture, but declining soybean shipments leave an important gap.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Corn exports are strengthening the trade outlook, but lower soybean movement and weaker demand from China remain major concerns.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
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