LAKELAND, Fla. (RFD-TV) — U.S. cattle numbers are at their smallest since 1951, creating a high-price, low-supply market that rewards careful planning. AgAmerica Lending says calf and fed-cattle prices remain elevated as consumers keep buying beef, even with retail records.
That combination supports cow-calf returns but pressures stocker and feedlot margins — a squeeze that will influence bids, basis, and the pace of herd rebuilding through 2026.
Key signals point to gradual expansion. Beef-cow slaughter has slowed about 17 percent from last year — a sign of retention — while July measures showed 10.9 million head on feed (-2%), 1.6 million placements (-6%), and 1.75 million marketings (-6%). Texas cattle on feed fell 9.1 percent.
At the store, ground beef averaged roughly $6.25 per pound; live steers averaged about $242 per hundredweight, with USDA expecting still-strong prices to carry into 2026. Feeder imports from Mexico are sharply lower after a screwworm-related suspension, keeping supplies tight in the Southwest.
Ranch finances matter as much as herd moves. AgAmerica highlights blended retention-and-sale plans, use of CME hedges and Livestock Risk Protection, disciplined cash-flow reserves for restocking, and succession pathways for new entrants while asset prices are high.
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