NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — House lawmakers are expected to vote this afternoon to end the longest-ever government shutdown in U.S. history. The bill would extend the government through January and includes key rural priorities, as well as continued funding for the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
However, regardless of the shutdown’s end, the USDA is moving to resume many reports that have been stalled by the shutdown — including the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report for November and weekly crop progress reports.
All eyes are on Friday’s USDA reports as analysts brace for fresh clarity on the size and quality of the 2025 U.S. corn and soybean crops — the first full update since mid-September. Trade estimates compiled by R.J. O’Brien point to slightly smaller corn yields but still robust total production, alongside a modest soybean revision that could influence balance-sheet expectations heading into year-end marketing.
Despite good inspection numbers and a record crop on the way, corn has been under pressure lately. Trader Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing told RFD-TV News this could mean some farmers pivot next year.
“I really believe, though, the disease pressure that we’ve continued to see over the past couple of years is going to pressure corn acres,” Hudson said. “I think, when you look at the fact that inputs are higher again, you know, we’ve got anhydrous at $850+ a ton. Those costs, in addition to the fact that you’re probably spending $50 to $80 bucks an acre on fungicide in some cases, if you’re going to do two rounds of it. I think people have kind of had a bad taste in their mouth when you do that, and you still get punched in the mouth on yield. And so I really believe that you’re going to see a little bit of hesitancy because of that.”
For corn, analysts see average yields near 181.6 bushels per acre, down slightly from the USDA’s prior 182.0 bpa figure but still historically strong. That would put total production around 15.17 billion bushels, roughly unchanged from September, keeping projected ending stocks near 2.125 billion bushels — a comfortable cushion but one that limits upside for prices unless exports accelerate. Soybean output is pegged at 4.13 billion bushels on a yield of 51.6 bpa, both fractionally below previous USDA estimates. Ending stocks are expected to tighten modestly to 336 million bushels, reflecting subdued crush margins and slow early-season exports. Wheat numbers are seen holding steady at 1.91 billion bushels with little change in ending stocks.
Traders will also watch global balance sheets, where corn and soybean carryout estimates remain near last month’s levels, signaling a stable world supply. For U.S. producers, the November report will anchor late-harvest price risk and help shape crop-insurance revenue benchmarks, grain-bin strategies, and 2026 planting outlooks across the Corn Belt.
