NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — A bigger Australian harvest is helping swell world grain supplies and weigh on prices heading into 2026. National production for the 2025/26 season is forecast at 64.2 million tons, up 5.2 million tons or 8.8 percent from last year, supported by widespread rainfall across key grain belts. Western Australia could record its second-largest crop on record, while Queensland and northern New South Wales continue to benefit from strong soil moisture reserves.
Improved wheat and canola yields, alongside expanded barley plantings, are driving the increase, according to Rabo Research. However, Australia faces tough export competition as large crops in Russia, the European Union, and the United States add to global supply. High carryover stocks in Australia and Canada are also limiting price upside, leaving domestic wheat values under pressure even as export demand stays firm.
Barley output is on track for near-record levels, putting more focus on export pace and feed grain use in domestic livestock sectors. Canola exports to Europe may soften with stronger EU production, though reduced sunflower output elsewhere and restocking needs could support non-GM canola prices. Chinese demand for Australian canola is expected to strengthen again in 2026, improving prospects for GM varieties.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Australia’s expanding harvest and global oversupply are keeping wheat and barley prices capped, though canola markets may hold firmer on shifting oilseed demand.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Late harvest and tight supplies shape crop progress and agribusiness this week. Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Dec. 1, 2025.
December 01, 2025 04:22 PM
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Tryston Beyrer, Crop Nutrition Lead at The Mosaic Company, examines planning trends as producers weigh corn and soybean plantings for 2026.
December 01, 2025 03:27 PM
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Brooks York with AgriSompo joins us to offer an update on what agents are prioritizing as the calendar year winds down.
December 01, 2025 03:06 PM
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The newly elected Executive Vice President of the Tennessee Cattlemen’s Association (TCA), Dale Parker, joins us on-set to share his vision for his state’s cattle industry.
December 01, 2025 02:47 PM
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SDRP Stage 2 now helps producers recover shallow, uninsured losses from major 2023–2024 disasters, with streamlined sign-ups open through April 30.
December 01, 2025 11:16 AM
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Tyson’s capacity cuts weaken local basis, tighten kill space, and heighten dependence on imports, signaling more volatility for producers.
December 01, 2025 11:09 AM
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Strong yields and higher cattle prices helped stabilize conditions, but weak crop prices and rising carryover debt remain major challenges for Eleventh District farmers.
November 25, 2025 02:55 PM
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Corn exports remain strong, while soybeans and wheat shift week to week on river conditions and global demand.
November 25, 2025 02:51 PM
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Tyson’s Nebraska plant closure and falling Cattle on Feed numbers send cattle markets tumbling. Analysts warn of tighter supplies, weak margins, and rising global competition.
November 25, 2025 12:05 PM
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