URBANA, Ill. (RFD NEWS) — Federal farm payment policy may be increasingly misaligned with today’s production realities, raising equity concerns and potential market distortions as new base acres are allocated in 2026.
Jonathan Coppess, with the University of Illinois Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics and former Administrator of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Farm Service Agency, says the USDA’s continued reliance on decoupled base acres rewards historical planting decisions rather than current risk exposure.
In a January 15 farmdoc daily analysis, Coppess explains that ARC and PLC payments are tied to base acres, not planted acres, allowing farmers to receive payments for crops they do not grow. With USDA signaling it will prioritize assigning new base acres to formerly unassigned cotton acres, those design flaws are returning to the forefront as program signups are delayed.
Using national average data, Coppess shows that crops with high base-acre payment rates — particularly rice, peanuts, and seed cotton — generate significantly higher total returns when corn or soybeans are planted on those base acres. Two producers growing the same crop can receive vastly different income outcomes solely because of their base-acre history.
Those disparities may influence planting decisions, especially as higher ARC and PLC payments take effect under the Reconciliation Farm Bill. Coppess cautions that this could contribute to oversupply risks in corn and soybeans.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Decoupled base acres may amplify income inequality and distort planting decisions as farm program payments increase.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Ohio AgNet’s Dusty Sonnenberg takes us up in the cab with a popcorn farmer bringing in this year’s haul.
November 10, 2025 11:07 AM
·
Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Monday, Nov. 10, 2025.
November 10, 2025 10:48 AM
·
The DOJ’s new antitrust probe could reshape beef-packer behavior, with potential impacts on fed-cattle prices, processor margins, and long-term competition across the supply chain.
November 10, 2025 10:35 AM
·
The Senate has cleared a path to reopen USDA, but full restoration of services depends on House approval and the President’s signature.
November 10, 2025 10:13 AM
·
Congressman Blake Moore of Utah discusses the bill’s potential to promote both economic growth and healthier forests on this week’s Champions of Rural America.
November 07, 2025 01:36 PM
·
Mike Newland with the Propane Education & Research Council shares how producers can prepare for winter weather and the benefits of propane.
November 07, 2025 12:03 PM
·
Verified U.S. data show real leather’s carbon footprint is lower than advertised — an edge for the American cattle industry in both marketing and byproduct value.
November 07, 2025 11:32 AM
·
Tight cattle supplies keep prices high for ranchers, but policy shifts, export barriers, and packer losses signal a volatile road ahead for the beef supply chain.
November 07, 2025 11:02 AM
·
Distillers dried grains (DDG) values follow corn and soybean meal trends, with ethanol grind and feed demand shaping costs into early 2026.
November 07, 2025 10:45 AM
·
