URBANA, Ill. (RFD NEWS) — Federal farm payment policy may be increasingly misaligned with today’s production realities, raising equity concerns and potential market distortions as new base acres are allocated in 2026.
Jonathan Coppess, with the University of Illinois Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics and former Administrator of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Farm Service Agency, says the USDA’s continued reliance on decoupled base acres rewards historical planting decisions rather than current risk exposure.
In a January 15 farmdoc daily analysis, Coppess explains that ARC and PLC payments are tied to base acres, not planted acres, allowing farmers to receive payments for crops they do not grow. With USDA signaling it will prioritize assigning new base acres to formerly unassigned cotton acres, those design flaws are returning to the forefront as program signups are delayed.
Using national average data, Coppess shows that crops with high base-acre payment rates — particularly rice, peanuts, and seed cotton — generate significantly higher total returns when corn or soybeans are planted on those base acres. Two producers growing the same crop can receive vastly different income outcomes solely because of their base-acre history.
Those disparities may influence planting decisions, especially as higher ARC and PLC payments take effect under the Reconciliation Farm Bill. Coppess cautions that this could contribute to oversupply risks in corn and soybeans.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Decoupled base acres may amplify income inequality and distort planting decisions as farm program payments increase.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
U.S. Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) shares his perspective on the U.S.-China trade developments and their potential impact on American producers, farmers, and ranchers.
October 30, 2025 12:56 PM
·
Rich Nelson, a commodity broker for Allendale Inc., joins us to break down what the U.S.-China trade agreement means for the ag economy.
October 30, 2025 12:04 PM
·
The U.S.-China summit raises hopes for stronger exports and reduced barriers, but U.S. ag players should remain strategically cautious until concrete volumes and certifications materialize.
October 30, 2025 10:37 AM
·
Rollins will also tour a small soybean operation in Iowa before her appearance at Lucas Oil Stadium.
October 29, 2025 05:03 PM
·
Expect incremental near-term lift for feed grains, proteins, and ethanol as tariff cuts and smoother approvals translate into real orders.
October 29, 2025 03:04 PM
·
Dr. Ashley Johnson, with the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC), joins us to share the sector’s perspective on new FDA initiatives targeting ultra-processed foods.
October 29, 2025 01:52 PM
·
Pork producers are making Veterans Day a little brighter for Iowa’s military families.
October 29, 2025 01:29 PM
·
If confirmed, early Chinese buys tighten nearby Gulf/PNW capacity and could bump basis in export-oriented regions.
October 29, 2025 10:15 AM
·
Trade pacts with Malaysia and Cambodia unlock tariff-free and preferential lanes for key U.S. farm goods, expanding long-term demand in Southeast Asia.
October 28, 2025 02:08 PM
·
