CENTENNIAL, Colo. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. beef herd expansion remains limited despite exceptionally low cow slaughter and a modest increase in replacement heifers. University of Arkansas economist James Mitchell says the July inventory report was more bullish than expected because beef cow numbers still declined.
Beef cows totaled 28.45 million head, or 99 percent of last year. That surprised analysts because January-through-June beef cow slaughter was only 3.7 percent of the January inventory, the lowest rate since the 1980s.
The 2026 calf crop is projected at 32.5 million head, equal to 98 percent of 2025. A smaller calf supply could further restrict feeder-cattle availability and eventually reduce beef production.
Replacement heifers reached 3.8 million head, or 103 percent of last year, but the increase was only 100,000. Heifers still represented 37.4 percent of feedlot inventories, compared with 32.5 percent during the 2015 expansion period.
Drought continues limiting widespread rebuilding. Markets will also weigh the smaller herd against USDA’s planned phased reopening of Mexican feeder-cattle imports.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) plans to resume cattle imports through an Arizona port beginning August 24 as part of a phased reopening of the U.S. border to cattle trade. The reopening remains contingent on federal inspections and continued safeguards.
National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) CEO Colin Woodall joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report to discuss the announcement and what it could mean for the cattle industry.
In his interview with RFD News, Woodall shared his initial reaction to USDA’s decision and discussed expectations for how quickly imports could resume under the phased reopening plan.
He also addressed the outlook for the reopening process, as it continues to depend on federal inspections and other safeguards before additional steps are taken.
Woodall discussed whether the limited reopening could help improve feeder cattle supplies and what producers should watch as the phased approach moves forward.
The conversation also focused on USDA’s efforts to combat New World screwworm and recent news from Secretary Brooke Rollins, who shared on X that only 11 cases have been reported this month, down from 31 in June. Woodall shared his perspective on the department’s response and the progress being made.
