WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD News) — A temporary surge in beef imports could weaken cattle prices just as U.S. ranchers begin rebuilding the nation’s historically small beef herd. The proposed 90-day window overlaps with the fall period when many cow-calf producers market spring-born calves.
The U.S. beef cow inventory stands at 28.5 million head, the lowest July level since records began in 1971. The calf crop increased 3 percent, signaling that some producers are beginning to retain heifers for herd expansion.
That recovery remains fragile. Cow-calf production costs reached a record $1,762 per head in 2025, nearly 30 percent above 2020, while recent cattle prices have fallen about 14 percent.
American Farm Bureau Federation economist Dr. John Newton says roughly 70 percent of spring-born calves are marketed between September and November, directly overlapping the proposed import period.
Newton joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss the concerns over foreign beef imports, arguing additional imports could provide short-term retail relief while reducing the returns needed to encourage heifer retention and long-term domestic beef production.
In his interview with RFD News, Dr. Newton says the current record-high beef prices are tied to several factors, including historically low cattle numbers and packing plant closures.
He notes that not only is the U.S. beef cow herd at its lowest level in 50 years, but a string of recent packing plant closures have also contributed to higher consumer prices.
The average retail beef price reached $6.90 in April, Newton says. He explains the high prices challenge both consumers and ranchers, and the administration is focused on inflation’s impact on consumers.
Timing of Beef Imports Raises Concerns
President Trump has announced his intention to move forward with a plan to import additional beef. Newton says the timing matters because fall is a critical marketing period for cattle producers.
“Seventy percent of the calves are going to be sold over this 90-day window,” Newton said.
He says the policy sends an economic signal to ranchers as they make decisions about whether to begin rebuilding the U.S. cattle herd.
The proclamation calls for importing 100,000 metric tons of beef over three consecutive 30-day windows.
Long-Term Impact on Herd Rebuilding
Newton says producers already face record-high production costs, making herd expansion a major investment. He says efforts to lower cattle and beef prices could make producers less willing to take on the risk associated with rebuilding their herds.
“Our herd didn’t get to a 50-year low overnight,” Newton said. “Those ranchers have been dealing with tough economic conditions, dealing with drought, but they want to grow the herd.”
Newton says producers need the right incentives to make those investments.
Farm Bureau Engaging With Administration
Newton says the American Farm Bureau Federation has been engaging with the administration on the issue since it first emerged in October.
He says Farm Bureau has communicated with the U.S. Trade Representative, the Department of the Interior and the White House.
Farm Bureau representatives were at the White House earlier in the week to discuss the proclamation and the concerns surrounding it.
Newton says Farm Bureau was also scheduled to return to the White House the following morning, with the beef import plan expected to remain a top issue in those discussions.
