WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD News) — A temporary surge in beef imports could weaken cattle prices just as U.S. ranchers begin rebuilding the nation’s historically small beef herd. The proposed 90-day window overlaps with the fall period when many cow-calf producers market spring-born calves.
The U.S. beef cow inventory stands at 28.5 million head, the lowest July level since records began in 1971. The calf crop increased 3 percent, signaling that some producers are beginning to retain heifers for herd expansion.
That recovery remains fragile. Cow-calf production costs reached a record $1,762 per head in 2025, nearly 30 percent above 2020, while recent cattle prices have fallen about 14 percent.
American Farm Bureau Federation economist John Newton says roughly 70 percent of spring-born calves are marketed between September and November, directly overlapping the proposed import period.
Newton argues additional imports could provide short-term retail relief while reducing the returns needed to encourage heifer retention and long-term domestic beef production.
