LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — A new model outlining the beef supply chain shows how value shifts from pasture to retail, highlighting how timing, costs, and yields determine who captures margins.
Hyrum Egbert, writing in the Big Bad Beefpacker newsletter, developed a framework that tracks cattle through cow-calf, stocker, feedyard, packer, and retail stages using consistent weights, pricing, and cost structures. The model follows an 18-month lifecycle and aligns each stage with appropriate pricing benchmarks, from live cattle values to boxed beef and retail pricing.
The analysis emphasizes that margins are not fixed within one segment. Instead, profitability varies with market conditions, input costs, and the sector holding risk at any given time. Feed costs, cattle prices, and beef demand all influence how value is distributed across the chain.
Yield and shrink also play a critical role. The model estimates a loss of roughly 11 to 12 percent from carcass to retail cuts and an additional 8 percent at the retail level, underscoring how much product never reaches the consumer.
The framework highlights that changes in any one part of the system — from weights to pricing assumptions — can shift margins across the entire chain.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Margins shift across the chain based on timing.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Bankruptcy filings reflect prolonged margin pressure, rising debt, and limited financial flexibility across farm country. Bigger operating loans are helping farms manage costs, but they also signal growing reliance on borrowed capital.
February 10, 2026 01:35 PM
·
RFD NEWS Correspondent Frank McCaffrey was in Mission, Texas, where state and federal officials addressed growers and producers at a round table event hosted at a citrus grower’s facility. He shows us how welcome news was all around.
February 10, 2026 12:05 PM
·
A transition from traditional, technology-specific subsidies toward a performance-based, technology-neutral framework
February 10, 2026 08:00 AM
·
Lower freight costs helped sustain export demand amid a challenging pricing environment.
February 10, 2026 06:00 AM
·
Producers across the country spent the week balancing spring planning with tight margins and uneven moisture outlooks. Input purchasing stayed cautious, while marketing and cash-flow decisions remained front and center for many operations.
February 09, 2026 03:17 PM
·
Income support helps, but farm finances remain tight heading into 2026.
February 09, 2026 03:04 PM
·
