NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Brazil’s fast-growing corn ethanol industry is creating new risks and opportunities for U.S. corn producers. Analysis from Grant Gardner, Assistant Extension Professor at the University of Kentucky at Martin, shows Brazil’s expanding domestic corn use could reshape global trade flows and add volatility to corn prices.
Brazil has long been a major ethanol producer, traditionally relying on sugarcane. But by 2024, about 20 percent of the country’s ethanol output came from corn, driven largely by safrinha production in the Center-West region.
Corn ethanol capacity in Brazil is projected to start near 23 million metric tons in 2026 and could grow to between 33 and 55 million metric tons by 2035. Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop totaled about 5.56 billion bushels, meaning projected 2026 ethanol capacity would consume a meaningful share of production.
As more corn moves into ethanol and feed use, export availability may fluctuate, which could reduce competition with U.S. corn in some years but increase volatility in global markets and futures prices.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Brazil’s ethanol growth could shift the corn trade.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg joined us with a recap of the Malaysia trade mission and a look at USDA’s broader trade strategy moving forward.
January 28, 2026 01:49 PM
·
Mike Steenhoek of the Soy Transportation Coalition shares how extreme winter weather is affecting the ag transportation network and what producers should keep in mind as conditions slowly improve.
January 28, 2026 01:36 PM
·
Strong White House backing supports ethanol demand, but timing now hinges on Congress resolving procedural — at the same time as they push toward a spending bill to avert another federal government shutdown.
January 28, 2026 11:35 AM
·
Corn and soybean exports continue to anchor weekly inspection totals, with China maintaining a visible role, while wheat and sorghum remain more dependent on regional and seasonal demand shifts.
January 27, 2026 03:08 PM
·
Lewis Williamson of HTS Commodities joined us with an update on the historic winter storm impacts and his outlook on today’s ag markets.
January 27, 2026 02:39 PM
·
Marilyn Schlake with the UNL Department of Agricultural Economics joined us for a closer look at the evolving role of livestock sale barns.
January 27, 2026 12:19 PM
·
