LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Brazil is on track for a record soybean crop, but growing challenges in logistics, costs, and domestic demand are limiting how much of the crop reaches global markets.
Texas A&M AgriLife Extension economist Yuri Calil reports Brazil’s 2025/26 crop is approaching 6.6 billion bushels, yet harvest delays and infrastructure constraints are slowing movement. By mid-March, harvest progress lagged last year by more than 10 percentage points, while a trucking-dependent system — with only about 14 percent of roads paved — continues to create bottlenecks. Export delays have also been compounded by additional inspections tied to trade with China.
Costs are rising across the supply chain. Brazil imports over 80 percent of its fertilizer, and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have driven up global input and freight costs. Diesel costs and ocean fuel prices have surged, increasing transportation expenses during peak export season.
At the same time, more soybeans are staying in Brazil. Domestic crushing is projected at 2.26 billion bushels, driven in part by biodiesel policy, reducing exportable supplies.
Even with record production, constraints in moving soybeans efficiently could limit Brazil’s global pressure and create openings for U.S. exports.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Brazil logistics issues may support U.S. soybean demand.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
One trader said the products entering the U.S. are primarily grind and trim, noting that the volume and type of beef, on its own, should not cause a major disruption. However, he says fund traders are reacting heavily to headlines rather than market realities.
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